[Munky-Necan]

I'm wondering how good fo a marker this is. We've already had people with significant heart attack symptoms refuse to go to the hospital, so is a similar trend happening here with COVID?

One thing I find a little suspect about this article, although I do respect Axios, is that hospital usage in Texas has not peaked yet and is currently rising (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texa...).

[chasd00]

just to further complicate things and show how stats are all over the place, the Texas Tribune has hospitalizations flat (even slightly decreasing on average) since about May 1

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronaviru...

[HarryHirsch]

Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator. The incubation period is 2 weeks, people grow sick enough to be hospitalized in week 3, and death occurs in week 4 or 5. That said, excess deaths are a reliable number, you can't fudge deaths.

[lhuser123]

I know someone who was recently hospitalized(Texas, US) but was not counted as a coronavirus patient because the test were negative(they didn’t test for anti bodies). The illness resembles almost everything I have read about people with complications from the virus. Doctors & nurses when asked, they all say that for the anti bodies test, the patient would have to go some place else.

[nradov]

The typical incubation period is more like 5 - 6 days. A 2 week incubation period is possible, but very rare.

[dragonwriter]

> That said, excess deaths are a reliable number, you can't fudge deaths.

Excess deaths aren't a reliable indicator of COVID-19 impact because of post hoc ergo propter hoc problems.

[jbergknoff]

> https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texa...

Am I missing something? It doesn't look like this has any data on hospitalizations. The graphs are all based on "projected" data.

[Munky-Necan]

At the bottom it has hospital resource usage. It also includes what the resource usage of hospitals was, but it lags about a week behind the current date. That type of data is harder to get.