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by chasd00 2220 days ago
just to further complicate things and show how stats are all over the place, the Texas Tribune has hospitalizations flat (even slightly decreasing on average) since about May 1

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronaviru...

1 comments

Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator. The incubation period is 2 weeks, people grow sick enough to be hospitalized in week 3, and death occurs in week 4 or 5. That said, excess deaths are a reliable number, you can't fudge deaths.
I know someone who was recently hospitalized(Texas, US) but was not counted as a coronavirus patient because the test were negative(they didn’t test for anti bodies). The illness resembles almost everything I have read about people with complications from the virus. Doctors & nurses when asked, they all say that for the anti bodies test, the patient would have to go some place else.
The typical incubation period is more like 5 - 6 days. A 2 week incubation period is possible, but very rare.
> That said, excess deaths are a reliable number, you can't fudge deaths.

Excess deaths aren't a reliable indicator of COVID-19 impact because of post hoc ergo propter hoc problems.