[mathdev]

Interesting predictions. However, they do not fit the facts on the ground, at least here in Poland, which is some weeks ahead of the US with respect to the development of the epidemic.

(I'm relieved that) people have gotten sick and tired of the restrictions, about 50% (and growing every day) are not wearing the masks inside anymore, or bother with the distancing, despite official requirements. All restaurants and bars are opening up on Monday, my favourite one described the prior atmosphere as a "psychosis of fear".

It's interesting what happens when the second wave of infections occurs, which is becoming more and more likely. It's hard to imagine the population will be as fearful and obedient as the first time, should the government try to impose another lockdown.

If, as Nassim Taleb believes, the lockdown was bottom-up, demanded by the people rather than imposed by the government, a repeat seems unlikely. Perhaps that's why the stock market is surging?

[morsch]

Poland locked down hard very early on and stopped the pandemic in its tracks. If you completely stop the lock down now, it'll spread rapidly and overwhelm your hospitals. But I doubt it'll happen that way. Presumably, you'll ease up on the restrictions, restaurants will be open but with fewer tables, there will be very few if any large events. Most people will be wary. This may be enough to keep R at or below 1.

Addendum: In no meaningful way is Poland some weeks ahead of the US. Poland is on around day 45 since the first people started dying, the US are on day 55. Throughout, around 10 times as many people (per capita; ie. 883 have died in Poland overall, if the statistics can be trusted) have died in the US each day from the disease, which presumably means that around 10 times as many people were infected. Like I said above, Poland has stopped the disease in its tracks, which is good! But it doesn't confer some sort of societal immunity.

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-daily-deaths-trajec...

[maxerickson]

Wearing masks in places like grocery stores is something we need to do if we want to limit the spread.

The main beneficiaries of that mask wearing are the employees, which sort of hollows out most of the reasons to refuse.

[netcan]

Got a link for the taleb commentary?

[mathdev]

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1258931279317405696 and there are more tweets on that if you scroll the feed.

[Inthenameofmine]

I fund it fascinating that in "developed" or "fully western" countries it is the youth that is disregarding the lockdown measures. In Kosovo/Albania it is the precise opposite. An acquaintance of mine in China told me that it is the genX and older generation there too that seems to not understand the gravity. How come this big difference?

[mythrwy]

Maybe older generations spend less time reading internet hysteria (or news or whatever you'd like to call it)?

[empath75]

They’ll resist the lockdown again until people start dying in large numbers and hospitals fill up and then it will be too late.

[giantDinosaur]

It's evident by this point that you can avoid total lockdowns and still control infections. Permanent lockdown is simply not a realistic solution, so I expect we'll all start tending towards the Swedish model, regardless of how much gnashing of teeth and fiery twitter rhetoric such decisions will generate.

As for the apocalyptic atmosphere - it doesn't seem possible to really predict how bad/good things will get. How many predicted during WW2 that upon its exit would be a period of unprecedented social progress & economic equality?

[mikepurvis]

> How many predicted during WW2 that upon its exit would be a period of unprecedented social progress & economic equality?

There was some precedent there: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roaring_Twenties

[giantDinosaur]

How silly, of course, since WW1 hadn't ended yet!

[PaulDavisThe1st]

Realistically, the end of WW2 was indeed followed by unprecedented social progress and economic equality in many parts of the world.

[empath75]

Sweden has by far the highest per capita death rate of its neighbors. I don’t think they’ll be emulating them.

[mrfusion]

Any more reading on taleb’s take? Could it be bottom up but kind of ignited and fed by media coverage?

[mrfusion]

What makes you see a second wave as likely? (Not challenging you, I’m just curious)

[mathdev]

It's just too contagious and countries are opening up that still have quite a large number of infections. Seems like a very tricky balancing act to keep R under 1.

[naveen99]

Poland and the rest of the world is just slower to change culturally. If what he describes happens in the usa, it will happen elsewhere just takes 10 years longer, but maybe less.