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by morsch
2228 days ago
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Poland locked down hard very early on and stopped the pandemic in its tracks. If you completely stop the lock down now, it'll spread rapidly and overwhelm your hospitals. But I doubt it'll happen that way. Presumably, you'll ease up on the restrictions, restaurants will be open but with fewer tables, there will be very few if any large events. Most people will be wary. This may be enough to keep R at or below 1. Addendum: In no meaningful way is Poland some weeks ahead of the US. Poland is on around day 45 since the first people started dying, the US are on day 55. Throughout, around 10 times as many people (per capita; ie. 883 have died in Poland overall, if the statistics can be trusted) have died in the US each day from the disease, which presumably means that around 10 times as many people were infected. Like I said above, Poland has stopped the disease in its tracks, which is good! But it doesn't confer some sort of societal immunity. Source: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-daily-deaths-trajec... |
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