[Hydraulix989]

By the time it is fall, this professor's advice will be obsolete. The death rate is already slowing down in NYC and Italy. The curve is flattened in South Korea and China, and there, many are going outside to cafes and the Han River park. San Francisco has had a grand total of 20 deaths. US is already planning to gradually reopen the economy.

[jkmcf]

The Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention said it's trying to understand why the patients retested positive for COVID-19 despite previous negative tests.

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/04/18/COVID-19-Survivor...

Not to mention: Denver had a significant spike in 1918 when interventions were removed.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVHzq2AWkAEhbJo.jpg

Note: I didn't locate this image on WashPo's site.

[SpicyLemonZest]

I'm sure you see why a graph of just Denver is suspicious. It strongly suggests that the rest of the country saw a smaller second hump or no second hump at all, so the graph makers had to exclude it.

[Hydraulix989]

Beat me to it. It's really egregious how many disingenuously flawed graphs (one even suggesting that the death rate passed up heart disease!) and faulty mathematical models (dY/dt=kY) there are floating around. This is why education is important because ignorance is placing blind trust in the media (whose narrative of fear helps to glue more eyeballs). There's plenty of indications we've already hit the inflection point:

Nature: Antibody tests suggest that coronavirus infections vastly exceed official counts https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0

SFGate / Stanford: Study investigates if COVID-19 came to Calif. in fall 2019 https://web.archive.org/web/20200408180013/https://www.sfgat...

From the very article you linked (did you actually read it?): "'At the moment, we think there is no danger of further secondary or tertiary transmission,' Kwon said." We had 8 new cases today, and 6 were from Americans/Europeans entering the country. Given that I lived in Korea for two years and have a fair amount of friends and family there, I am a bit familiar with their situation.

[jkmcf]

I don't see why it is suspicious. It may have been redacted but there's nothing intrinsically wrong AFAICT.

Howard Markel, M.D., Ph.D. of the University of Michigan Center for the History of Medicine talks about the 2nd hump:

https://www.mdlinx.com/physiciansense/covid-19-is-a-second-p...

[Robotbeat]

On the contrary: Reopening before the test and trace infrastructure (like South Korea’s) is in place is likely to cause another wave right about the time when the Fall Semester is starting..

[Hydraulix989]

That sounds like pure speculation. We should be relying on data, instead of fear, for motivating our decisions.

[Robotbeat]

not pure speculation. There's historical precedence in the Spanish Flu for a resurgence of the disease after social distancing orders are ended too early.

[Hydraulix989]

We were already discussing this in the cousin thread.

As feedback, I would feel safer if you used the name "1918 Pandemic" rather than naming viruses where they might have came from. I have personally seen and been targeted by daily overt acts of aggression (in San Francisco, no less) because of these kinds of false associations.

[Robotbeat]

I'm aware of that, and if there were a risk of acts of hatred against Spanish folk by me using that name today, I'd agree, however we're talking about a pandemic that spanned 1918 and 1919, with the second wave in 1919. Using "Spanish Flu" is, however, clear and well understood.

On the topic of how geographic disease names have often been used in racist or at least nationalistic ways, check out this hilarious map of the geographic distribution of names for "syphilis": https://digg.com/2017/syphilis-name-map