not pure speculation. There's historical precedence in the Spanish Flu for a resurgence of the disease after social distancing orders are ended too early.
We were already discussing this in the cousin thread.
As feedback, I would feel safer if you used the name "1918 Pandemic" rather than naming viruses where they might have came from. I have personally seen and been targeted by daily overt acts of aggression (in San Francisco, no less) because of these kinds of false associations.
I'm aware of that, and if there were a risk of acts of hatred against Spanish folk by me using that name today, I'd agree, however we're talking about a pandemic that spanned 1918 and 1919, with the second wave in 1919. Using "Spanish Flu" is, however, clear and well understood.
On the topic of how geographic disease names have often been used in racist or at least nationalistic ways, check out this hilarious map of the geographic distribution of names for "syphilis": https://digg.com/2017/syphilis-name-map