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by blueboo 2267 days ago
Ah, but the big question is how much curve-flattening stretches it out in your country of residence.

Some societies will choose such that their medical infrastructure will be at 10x capacity for ten times as long rather than be at 100x capacity.

Others will manage to stamp it out, only to endure subsequent flare-ups.

Unconstrained doubling is only a popular policy among oligarchs in power. To be fair, they do have a lot of power...
1 comments
JoeAltmaier 2267 days ago
Evidence to date outside Asia is, zero flattening. Most places. Thus my estimate.

If you want to posit some slight flattening, then 70 day? No more.

The terrible power of geometric growth cannot be resisted for long. You need to change the growth rules entirely to beat it. No half-measures will do it.

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SideburnsOfDoom 2267 days ago
> Evidence to date outside Asia is, zero flattening

That's not true. "new daily deaths" are fairly flat in Italy over the last week, not doubling geometrically at all.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

If the lockdown is working in other countries, then a similar state will be reached 3 weeks afterwards.

Daily new cases is down in Italy since peak on 21 March - that's a leading metric compared to deaths, although it is less precise because it can be swayed by changes in testing.

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JoeAltmaier 2267 days ago
Well I hope its true. The curves have shown 'levelling off' before, only to return to geometric growth when testing increases.

E.g. click on a country on the left, select 'logarithmic' on the lower right and see what you think: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

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SideburnsOfDoom 2267 days ago
Sure, more time/data is needed to know for sure. If you factor in 1 week until symptoms, another 1-2 weeks until the worst part of the illness, then yes, the effect of lock down on death rates won't be seen until 2-3 weeks have passed.

This is the UK 2.5 weeks ago: https://twitter.com/stereophonics/status/1238944498006274048

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SideburnsOfDoom 2266 days ago
* Average time between infection and death from COVID-19 is 23 days. https://twitter.com/michaeljswalker/status/12454153391497052...

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...

So lockdown won't be reflected in death rates until _over_ 3 weeks have passed.

This is the UK, 3 weeks ago: https://twitter.com/stevethewall/status/1244249363427328003

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