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by SideburnsOfDoom 2267 days ago
> Evidence to date outside Asia is, zero flattening

That's not true. "new daily deaths" are fairly flat in Italy over the last week, not doubling geometrically at all.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

If the lockdown is working in other countries, then a similar state will be reached 3 weeks afterwards.

Daily new cases is down in Italy since peak on 21 March - that's a leading metric compared to deaths, although it is less precise because it can be swayed by changes in testing.
1 comments
JoeAltmaier 2267 days ago
Well I hope its true. The curves have shown 'levelling off' before, only to return to geometric growth when testing increases.

E.g. click on a country on the left, select 'logarithmic' on the lower right and see what you think: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

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SideburnsOfDoom 2267 days ago
Sure, more time/data is needed to know for sure. If you factor in 1 week until symptoms, another 1-2 weeks until the worst part of the illness, then yes, the effect of lock down on death rates won't be seen until 2-3 weeks have passed.

This is the UK 2.5 weeks ago: https://twitter.com/stereophonics/status/1238944498006274048

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SideburnsOfDoom 2266 days ago
* Average time between infection and death from COVID-19 is 23 days. https://twitter.com/michaeljswalker/status/12454153391497052...

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...

So lockdown won't be reflected in death rates until _over_ 3 weeks have passed.

This is the UK, 3 weeks ago: https://twitter.com/stevethewall/status/1244249363427328003

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