[jariel]

This is terrible thinking: South Korea and other places have not locked down and they have effectively contained the virus.

We are doing Trillions of damage they are avoiding. Given the costs we should be spending billions studying what they are doing.

We need to understand more effectively how the virus is spreading and focus on those spots, not this lockdown stuff which is too costly.

Some basic policies like mask-wearing for everyone in public, gloves, and masks in restaurants, and on subways busses, N95 maybe for anyone in crowded area jobs, anyone with any sickness immediately self-isolates etc..

These total shut-downs seem like a 'home vacay' for now but it will start causing serious pain very soon.

Edit: I should add by 'trillions in damage' I'm not worried about shareholders; this will have serious consequences for people. Many millions are losing their jobs, millions will be evicted, foreclosed, homeless, jobless, and otherwise, have their lives severely disrupted. FYI in America no job = no healthcare. At some point, the shelves stop being stocked. We need to be smart.

[chinathrow]

From the article: HK did in fact not effectively contain the virus.

"In recent days, this semblance of normalcy has vanished. The number of confirmed cases here has ticked upward at a much quicker pace than before, worrying health experts. The government reversed course on its easing of restrictions, sending workers back home, closing parks and city facilities, and reiterating calls for social distancing."

[bilbo0s]

It's actually even worse than that on the ground in HK right now.

Ban on non-residents. Groups of more than 4 people are broken up. A growing skittish-ness about "foreigners", (thought to be the people who brought the second wave of infections to HK). Etc etc.

HK and Tokyo are not examples to be emulated, they are examples of what we should be trying to avoid.

[jariel]

"HK and Tokyo are not examples to be emulated, they are examples of what we should be trying to avoid."

???

Japan has one of the lowest rates of infection/million and data shows that spread is considerably slower.

Assuming the data is not fiction, obviously, we should be emulating them, not ignoring them.

FYI they also have not 'locked down'.

They're literally stopping the virus while not destroying their economies, while we are putting millions out of work while the virus expands.

[SpicyLemonZest]

It's likely, unfortunately, that the Tokyo data is fiction. There's been a significant spike in new cases starting immediately after the Olympics were officially delayed.

[jariel]

I share your skepticism, that said, it'd be nary impossible to hide hospitals overflowing with patients etc. there'd be too many whistleblowers in the medical community. So we'll have to keep an eye on Japan.

[jariel]

Sorry, I meant to wite South Korea.

[dirtyid]

I'm hoping ubiquitous mask usage + testing + efficient contact tracing would be a formula to spread the curve and keep 80% of the economy open. I think large gatherings are out until herd immunity or vaccine.

That said, I'm monitoring countries with high mask usage and it seems like people are getting complacent with social distancing and other active measures, lack of vigilance and adherence is going to become an issue, especially once nice weather rolls around. And I'm not entire convinced mask-usage is effective at high levels of community spread, it might only have disproportionately utility at the head of the outbreak.

Still out of all large scale, realistic intervention, some sort of mask usage using mass or crowd sourced production outside of medical supply chain might be worth trying. I think it be relatively easy to distribute DIY masks to everyone with insert pocket - apparently 2 pieces of paper towels has 80% filtration value.

There's also a lot natural experiments happening in cities, at least according to anecdotes and personal experience, most of the China/Korea towns are taking it very seriously. Where I live, there was like 80% mask usage. It be interesting to compare infection rates between a big Chinese grocery store with a Western one in a few weeks.

[dpcan]

I agree, there's something much bigger at play here. They've been telling us NOT to wear masks.

Why not put everyone in masks and gloves instead?

[jds375]

There’s nothing bigger at play. The reasoning is obvious. It’s because there are not enough masks available and it’s more important that healthcare workers get them right now than the general public.

Once healthcare workers are covered, then we can make sure everyone else starts wearing them.

[jariel]

The reason they've been telling us not to wear masks is a little tricky: they don't want us to buy N95s in lieu of having them go to medical staff.

From the BBC:

"Disposable surgical masks also are not recommended for people unless they're sick or caring for someone who's ill."

Well, if it helps someone caring for someone who's ill, obviously it will help a random person no? I suppose the issue is the degree of effectiveness, how it is used, and I've read that wearing a mask makes people otherwise too confident and lax in other things aks washing hands.

If Korea can do it, we can do it, whatever 'it' is it's not magic.