[sloaken]

At this point I think it is a frying pan / fire equation.

Although NY might not be the best place, where would, and can you get there in time, and without risk.

I see how the calculation is that NY ICU will be overwhelmed, not sure that there is anywhere which will not be. I see little difference between a 1% chance of getting an ICU bed and a 0.02% chance. If it was me, I would stay put.

[boltzmannbrain]

Yes, thank you.

My thought experiments have been hand-wavy expected value calculations like this: P(failure) = P(infection) * P(critical) * (1-P(icu))

0.1 * 0.8 * 0.9 = 0.072

and cost of failure is, well, infinite.

That infection probability is optimistic, considering what you mention above. That ICU availability probability is the situation we're facing in NYC.