[boltzmannbrain]

Yes, thank you.

My thought experiments have been hand-wavy expected value calculations like this: P(failure) = P(infection) * P(critical) * (1-P(icu))

0.1 * 0.8 * 0.9 = 0.072

and cost of failure is, well, infinite.

That infection probability is optimistic, considering what you mention above. That ICU availability probability is the situation we're facing in NYC.