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by yulaow 2281 days ago
I would add that even after the crisis is more under control, people will still avoid any not necessary spending for a very long time and this will keep the economy to restart. Also most of them will have depleated all savings at that point and will want to rebuild them aggressively, further reducing spending
3 comments

On the other hand i predict there will be a huge surge in tourism and partying.

Also, not everyone has insufficient savings.

68% of Americans dont have enough to cover a $500 surprise bill [0]. A lot will rely on credit availability which will worse that impending crisis.

0: https://www.forbes.com/sites/maggiemcgrath/2016/01/06/63-of-...

I am willing to bet more than 50% of people have not enough saving for a crisis long 8-12 months
More than 50% of Americans making less than $50K say they can't afford to miss a single paycheck.

About 30% say they have absolutely zero emergency savings.

I would expect that the number of working Americans with emergency savings to cover even six months of expenses is fewer than 1 in 10.

Granted, there are options such as HELOC, tapping 401k, etc.

But most of us are grasshoppers, not ants.

Granted,

That’s an easy prediction I think nearly half of Americans don’t have 500 in savings. That number is 80-90%
Anecdotal but my eBay sales have been way up this last week. Although honestly I suspect it’s Amazon having problems shipping things.

I’m better a lot of other online sellers are seeing the same as people stay indoors and change how they spend. Of the items I’ve sold they were all hobby items.

If people plan to not go out fora while, maybe a hobby would be wise investment to keep their sanity.

Yesterday, I was looking at eBay for lockpicking trainers.

Oh man, lockpicking is something I got sucked into years ago. Lots of fun and really impresses/scares people when they see how "easy" it is.
Sentiment momentum. No one is as confident about the economy as they were two months ago, and forward spending will reflect that.