[chewz]

It doesn't have to be bad, on the contrary. Black Death in XIV century have invigorated European economy.

Think of it as much needed reset on multiple levels. New supply chains will be created, new business opportunities. Capital re-allocated. It is going to be wonderfull times.

Also historically plagues allow for great upward social mobility which is kick-start for the economy.

[impendia]

> Also historically plagues allow for great upward social mobility which is kick-start for the economy.

This certainly happened with Europe in the Black Death. I would argue, however, that the present is not a good analogy.

My knowledge of history is a bit sketchy, but from what I understand -- prior to the Black Death, times were rough for ordinary working people. Subsistence farming, in particular, was stretched to its limit; for many peasants, not all that much separated them from starvation.

The Black Death caused a truly massive number of fatalities. Afterwards, when the same total amount of natural resources were available, people had breathing room and the economy was able to expand.

Covid-19, while terrible, is not forecasted to be nearly as bad as the Black Death. The fatality rate is expected to possibly reach 1%, most of that concentrated among the elderly. Although this would be a catastrophe, it doesn't seem likely to have the same direct economic impact. The main economic impact is probably going to come from what is happening now -- bars, restaurants, concert halls, hotels, and such all being shuttered. Especially if this needs to be maintained for a long time.

Moreover, economics are different. So much capital now is concentrated among very big businesses. They'll be fine, especially since there is talk of bailing them out (e.g. airlines in the US). I doubt they'll change all that much, unless coerced by a radical change in public policy. But meanwhile, a lot of small businesses will go under. New ones will start, but I'm afraid (for example) that independent coffee shops will go out of business and that Starbucks will take their place.

I very much hope I'm wrong.

[KineticLensman]

> The Black Death caused a truly massive number of fatalities. Afterwards, when the same total amount of natural resources were available, people had breathing room and the economy was able to expand.

The number of fatalities appears to have increased the bargaining power, wealth and social mobility of the remaining agricultural workers [0], amongst other things.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consequences_of_the_Black_Deat...

[glofish]

I think it will fundamentally reshape a few aspects of life - and not all is bad.

Needless, gratuitous (business and other) travel for one - which in turn will lead to much better housing prospects for young people. Treating a house as investment was the most damaging trend of the last two decades.

The loss of accumulated wealth also reduces inequalities.

Wasteful practices will be affected more in all walks of life.

Reducing the carbon footprint is also a massive benefit. We will reduce that more than by any other measure we would have taken.

[andrepd]

>the loss of accumulated wealth

If only. I but I think wealthy individuals and companies with huge cash war chests are going to be just fine.

[qubex]

Oh yes, that’s a great example: “so many people died that the two-thirds that survived enjoyed benefits for generations”.

Yes, it’s accurate... but I think it also somewhat misses the point. The unexpected consequences of a mass culling several years down the line probably is of the “extremely bad” persuasion.

[impendia]

According to some historians, OP is right about the Black Death. For example, it has been suggested that it led to the Renaissance. See for example here:

https://dailyhistory.org/How_did_the_Bubonic_Plague_make_the...

The Black Death was horrific, but had what I would argue were some very positive long-term consequences.

[qubex]

I am absolutely certain that the OP is correct, I don’t dispute it

But telling somebody who is managing a 40-people firm facing 20x revenue drop that “it might work out as well as the Black Death did” is... kind of missing the whole point, to be perfectly accurate.

[take_a_breath]

And how long was the period between the Black Death (1347-1350) and the Renaissance? That’s what matters to the people alive today.

[ljm]

Arguably the same after WW2, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a new generation of 'boomers' if our societies go through that kind of phase again. Pure speculation though, and I'd personally rather hope that aspects of our society can reform without a major death toll.

[lotsofpulp]

How many years down the line? Because for the environment, I can’t see anything better than a “mass culling” (since the only way energy and other resource usage will go down is a reduction in population).

[l33tbro]

How will capital be reallocated exactly? How will the new supply chains be created? We're heading into a long depression. The remaining wealth goes to bailing out and ventriloquizing the failed system until its next crisis iteration.

[chewz]

Through inflation from real estate into productive economy for example.

[dntbnmpls]

> Black Death in XIV century have invigorated European economy.

So did the spanish flu. Everyone forgets that we had the roaring 20s ( one of the great economic, societal and cultural growths ) right after the spanish flu.

[take_a_breath]

Odd to bring up the economic gains of the Roaring 20s without mentioning the Great Depression that immediately followed.

[boudin]

There was also WW1 at the same time.