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> Also historically plagues allow for great upward social mobility which is kick-start for the economy. This certainly happened with Europe in the Black Death. I would argue, however, that the present is not a good analogy. My knowledge of history is a bit sketchy, but from what I understand -- prior to the Black Death, times were rough for ordinary working people. Subsistence farming, in particular, was stretched to its limit; for many peasants, not all that much separated them from starvation. The Black Death caused a truly massive number of fatalities. Afterwards, when the same total amount of natural resources were available, people had breathing room and the economy was able to expand. Covid-19, while terrible, is not forecasted to be nearly as bad as the Black Death. The fatality rate is expected to possibly reach 1%, most of that concentrated among the elderly. Although this would be a catastrophe, it doesn't seem likely to have the same direct economic impact. The main economic impact is probably going to come from what is happening now -- bars, restaurants, concert halls, hotels, and such all being shuttered. Especially if this needs to be maintained for a long time. Moreover, economics are different. So much capital now is concentrated among very big businesses. They'll be fine, especially since there is talk of bailing them out (e.g. airlines in the US). I doubt they'll change all that much, unless coerced by a radical change in public policy. But meanwhile, a lot of small businesses will go under. New ones will start, but I'm afraid (for example) that independent coffee shops will go out of business and that Starbucks will take their place. I very much hope I'm wrong. |
The number of fatalities appears to have increased the bargaining power, wealth and social mobility of the remaining agricultural workers [0], amongst other things.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consequences_of_the_Black_Deat...