Are all deaths just being counted as Covid-19 (without test then)? I think it would be really interesting to compare baseline deaths in February/March from previous years to this one.
However, this assumes the current surge deaths are 100% SARS-Cov2 confirmed infections.
They aren’t. At least not 100%
Assumption can be made “atypical, bad flu season” but safer bet is on “newly discovered virus out of China that did x and y and z damage over there.”
While both theories are just that, theories. There is no empirical data which PROVES x-cases and y-surge is directly related to a confirmed SARS-Cov2 pathogen confirmed by RT-PCR and antibody test.
The Italian data is wrong period. Why or how is another debate.
All dead patients were tested and they were positive. The Italian ISS is reporting that those patients went full ICU with the most common symptoms associated with Covid-19, notably respiratory failure, then "danno renale acuto", "danno miocardico acuto" and "dovrainfezione", which I'm not going to translate for you, and this is happening regardless of their pre-existing conditions. There's no easy assumption except yours. Stop blaming italian professionals and I invite you to visit our government websites for the details, for which I'm not going to provide a link for you. Also, there is no guessing game as to who is affected by the virus. Again, you need not to mix your prejudice against Italians with the emergency we are having.
Italians are most likely counting most if not all deaths as SARS-Cov2 deaths.
1) A large amount of the elderly are going to hospitals because of pre-existing conditions that might be flaring up or presenting as they normally do. They enter the clinic > get complications > get marked down as dying from SARS-Cov2. And/or they acquire hospital acquired pneumonia (HAP).
2) I’ve read the ISS report cover to cover and yes, nearly ALL deaths are due to 1) age greater than 70, 2) 75% showing 2 (two) or more per-existing conditions with a staggering 99% showing 1 (one) or more pre-existing conditions. Let’s not forget the above comment (HAP or other hospital acquired infections from SARS-Cov2, Influenza, whatever).
3) Seeing a death count YOY would be beneficial here indeed.
I don’t think ANYBODY will be able to answer my initial question here.
There is NO WAY in hell the Italians have tested over 200,000 patients for SARS-Cov2 in a matter of 2-3 weeks due to:
1) such capacity simply does not exist
2) Italians have been under quarantine and when they weren’t they were drinking coffee and not lining up for tests.
3) the time of test > result trajectory > reported data is impossible
4) such high throughout testing capacity simply does not exist
Also in Italy, unlike what happens in other countries, all deceased people positive to the test are classified as "Covid deaths", regardless of the simultaneous presence of other serious diseases.
Germany is able to conduct more than 160,000 tests per week. I do not know the numbers for Italy, but why shouldn't they be able to reach that number over 2-3 weeks?
Apples to oranges. Can not compare Italy with Germany.
Germans are willingly being tested, there process, order, proactive testing. In Italy everyone is 1) quarantined for the past 2 weeks and 2) didn’t even give a crap about this prior to the quarantine.
Italy is triaging, out of hospital space, vastly over estimating numbers, and probably using models with some accuracy to report their numbers. Unless someone can PROVE this otherwise.
Their death rate is what it is due to a very elderly population, with 2 or more co-morbidities, in understaffed and overwhelmed hospitals full of chaos, and infection.
If the average number of cases in some small area (e.g. a block or blocks of buildings, a part of town, a town) is e.g. two patients with symptoms X per MONTH, and the symptoms include FEVER and not being able to breath, i.e. something people can't just make up and can be easily measured, and THEN you get a patient from a block of buildings with symptoms X and THEN you test him and get a positive result and THEN you get ten more people from there with symptoms X, AND in the same small are some people have the same symptoms and are in such a bad condition that they need to be connected to the MACHINES and some DIE, you can be very sure it's a virus which never existed among the humans before generating these symptoms.
Otherwise, it would have to be some OTHER virus not known to humanity appearing at the same time, behaving unlike the viruses we know and watch every year, magically appearing exactly in the community where you verified the existence of the one for which you test.
It very much is. When you are limited in every way you have make some cuts. This is just the cut that says that it is probably covid if it is not flu and they are from an area with test confirmed cases. And in by far most cases it is going to be correct. Probably as correct as the current test for covid.
So 200,000+ people under mandatory lockdown went to a clinic (not a drive through test, a physical clinic), lined up and waited to get tested for Influenza which was assumed to be SARS-Cov2?
Or maybe Italy tested 200,000+ samples with RT-PCR technology with machines and labs and tests / swabs they don’t have?
Not trying at all to spin conspiracy theories here but these numbers simply do not add up.
As a corollary: there are a myriad of infections that can present as fever and cough: rhinoviruses, influenza, bronchial infections, gastroenteritis, auto immune flare ups, sinusitis and season allergies, the list goes on.
They can just test for Covid-19 antibodies. It's not really reliable, but it is much faster than the genetic tests and should quickly discriminate between Covid and the common flu.
Italians are triaging, so they have to quickly sort the cases. They have to sacrifice precision and allow for some false positives.
This is very much a game of assumptions and a game of cutting corners at this point. It's wartime. The hospitals near me are literally using pieces of cotton, cut shirts, hand-sewn layers, instead of regulation-required certified N95 masks.
Because if true, combine that with the facts that
- 87% of deaths occur at home and not in ICU [1]
- median age of deaths is 80 years old [2]
Are all deaths just being counted as Covid-19 (without test then)? I think it would be really interesting to compare baseline deaths in February/March from previous years to this one.
[1] https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cronaca/coronavirus-in-lomba...
[2] https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-C...