[tasogare]

You can’t find masks anywhere since more than a month. Few people wear them (I would say about 30%). Granted, people have less physical contact.

The real reason for the low number of cases is the lack of tests. I’ve spoken today with multiple Japanese friends and other residents, all think the government is lying and hiding it to save the Olympics. We will see the truth in a month...

[vasilipupkin]

agree, we will know in a month, but even if govt is lying about cases, we should be seeing a deluge of patients in the ICUs and rise in deaths and we aren't seeing that

[graeme]

How would you know they haven’t? If you don’t test a death for the virus, the death doesn’t show up in virus death counts. And if you aren’t in a hospitals, the deaths wouldn’t show yet.

At some point it would become too big to ignore. But is Japan there yet? This is definitely a space to watch over the next 2-3 weeks.

[qes]

You look at death counts overall and for other reasons. The spikes will show up somewhere, if they exist.

[kevin_thibedeau]

The CDC lumps deaths by pneumonia into its influenza estimates. Presumably epidemiologists would do the same here and just miss the distinction from actual influenza deaths.

[Aeolun]

Given where they could have been if they’d followed the same trajectory as Italy, I’d say the strain should be visible if it was there.

[michaelbuckbee]

30% usage is approximately 500x what I've seen in suburbia US.

[mekster]

I see more like 70% wearing in Tokyo.