[vasilipupkin]

agree, we will know in a month, but even if govt is lying about cases, we should be seeing a deluge of patients in the ICUs and rise in deaths and we aren't seeing that

[graeme]

How would you know they haven’t? If you don’t test a death for the virus, the death doesn’t show up in virus death counts. And if you aren’t in a hospitals, the deaths wouldn’t show yet.

At some point it would become too big to ignore. But is Japan there yet? This is definitely a space to watch over the next 2-3 weeks.

[qes]

You look at death counts overall and for other reasons. The spikes will show up somewhere, if they exist.

[kevin_thibedeau]

The CDC lumps deaths by pneumonia into its influenza estimates. Presumably epidemiologists would do the same here and just miss the distinction from actual influenza deaths.

[Aeolun]

Given where they could have been if they’d followed the same trajectory as Italy, I’d say the strain should be visible if it was there.