[taeric]

But why? I have pushed my air quality hypothesis. What other reasons are there.

And you can't just claim social distancing. Unless they have shut down their trains, where people are literally packed in, that just doesn't fly. (So, have they?)

[craftinator]

There are a number of thoughts I have, but I'm puzzled as well. My first explanation is that the Japanese are simply more hyegeinic than most other countries I've been to. Fastidious is the word that comes to mind. They wash hands often, wear clean clothes, wear masks or stay home when sick, don't shake hands or touch often.

Second explanation that comes to mind is that they tend to be just healthier than other countries. They have low obesity, exercise correctly and routinely, walk and ride bikes to get where they go, and do all of this even when elderly. The counterpoint to this is that they have a really high smoking population.

Source: I lived there for two years.

[taeric]

The first one could explain why it isn't spreading there. Without testing, hard to know if that is accurate. Reports from other threads supports that it is there, but not severe cases. (Sadly, anecdotes...)

Second is also tougher to square. The risk pool is supposedly older people, per reports from Italy. But, that doesn't seem to square with age profiles of Japanese. So??

[brigandish]

One difference could be that old people in Japan are all too often living a solitary existence or not in frequent touch with their family. My wife brought this up last night as I was discussing this thread with her and out of everything I've seen, read, and considered, this seems to be the one thing that could stop it - they were already socially distancing the most vulnerable group.

Still, there's a long way to go for this thing.

[MikeAmelung]

Couple of possibilities I've been thinking about:

The virus has been in Italy for a lot longer than they think, and they get close to each other/have actual contact a lot (I don't know if that's actually true, I've never been to Italy)

Maybe they mostly have a particular mutation that is more deadly/infectious

[brigandish]

Don't discount the possibility that figures are being massaged in various ways. One is the obvious lack of widespread testing. Another is the reports of people with symptoms being turned away. Then there are the kodokushi[0] numbers which are a clue to how the government already deals with uncomfortable mortality figures - let alone those kudokushi who may die because of the virus - and a over a million deaths a year (I don't know the monthly totals) in which to hide a few hundred (initially) deaths, especially while still in flu season.

In short, I trust the figures here about one step more than ones coming out of China.

[0] https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2015/06/kodokushi-in-agi...

[angrais]

When saying kodokushi, why not just say "old people that die alone"?

[brigandish]

Because having a special term for something implies its widespread nature.

[taeric]

I can't square that it has been in Italy substantially longer than Japan. Nor that Italians touch each other more than Japanese. Have you ever seen the videos of commuter trains in Japan?

So, possible, but seems not as likely to be the explanation.

[taeric]

Relying on a particular mutation seems less plausible than difference in air quality exposure that can be measured today.

[fspeech]

Don't they wear masks on trains?

[taeric]

Have you seen the trains? No amount of mask would stop some spread there.

[fspeech]

Why isn't that the evidence that mask is effective?

[taeric]

It would need testing to show they don't have a prevalence of "mild" cases. Not to mention we should have numbers on how often they wear masks. Last I saw, it was not everyone that did that.

Edit for reference: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=E7kor5nHtZQ

[fspeech]

80% compliance would eliminate flu outbreaks and flu is upper respiratory. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30229968

The New Yorker article we are supposedly discussing literally says the coronavirus is not very efficient even in hospital settings.

I am familiar with crowded trains in East Asia. Your video does not have time marker so I assume it is not taken recently.

[brigandish]

People don't wear N95 masks here, they wear cheap masks you can pick up in any drug store for just a few coins.

How would an entire country obtain N95 masks and training and proper fitting (it's done by trained fitters) and dispose of them properly, and do that daily? (if not more often)

Every time I go out I see the cheapo ones left in the street because there's a vague notion they should be disposed of "properly" so I don't see this idea working at all.

[taeric]

I assume not recent either. If there is a recent one, I'm interested.

I posted that as evidence masks have not always been worn by everyone.

I'm confused on your 80% compliance number. Are you saying Japanese get 80% compliance on things, and by extension don't have flu outbreaks?