[MikeAmelung]

Couple of possibilities I've been thinking about:

The virus has been in Italy for a lot longer than they think, and they get close to each other/have actual contact a lot (I don't know if that's actually true, I've never been to Italy)

Maybe they mostly have a particular mutation that is more deadly/infectious

[brigandish]

Don't discount the possibility that figures are being massaged in various ways. One is the obvious lack of widespread testing. Another is the reports of people with symptoms being turned away. Then there are the kodokushi[0] numbers which are a clue to how the government already deals with uncomfortable mortality figures - let alone those kudokushi who may die because of the virus - and a over a million deaths a year (I don't know the monthly totals) in which to hide a few hundred (initially) deaths, especially while still in flu season.

In short, I trust the figures here about one step more than ones coming out of China.

[0] https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2015/06/kodokushi-in-agi...

[angrais]

When saying kodokushi, why not just say "old people that die alone"?

[brigandish]

Because having a special term for something implies its widespread nature.

[taeric]

I can't square that it has been in Italy substantially longer than Japan. Nor that Italians touch each other more than Japanese. Have you ever seen the videos of commuter trains in Japan?

So, possible, but seems not as likely to be the explanation.

[taeric]

Relying on a particular mutation seems less plausible than difference in air quality exposure that can be measured today.