I have seen the progress in China since the late 1990s. A rate of change impossible for a modern westerner to believe. China is not a photograph but a video on fast-forward.
people were saying this about the USSR in the 1930s (see beyond the urals by john scott). it's always faster to catch up than to break new ground. their rate of progress will slow dramatically as they approach the state of the art.
maybe, maybe not. it's impossible to say. developing new stuff is a very different game from catching up, especially when you get to manufacture mid-tech stuff for the west and take a loose interpretation of intellectual property. as a state, china currently seems much more able to direct its resources towards worthwhile endeavors than the US, but afaik they are still pretty far behind when it comes to cutting-edge stuff. the new j-20 fighter isn't a match for the f-22, let alone the f-35. they can't touch the level of US silicon fabs without annexing taiwan. I've read some convincing arguments that it may have an edge in cyberespionage/warfare, but it's always hard to judge those capabilities.