maybe, maybe not. it's impossible to say. developing new stuff is a very different game from catching up, especially when you get to manufacture mid-tech stuff for the west and take a loose interpretation of intellectual property. as a state, china currently seems much more able to direct its resources towards worthwhile endeavors than the US, but afaik they are still pretty far behind when it comes to cutting-edge stuff. the new j-20 fighter isn't a match for the f-22, let alone the f-35. they can't touch the level of US silicon fabs without annexing taiwan. I've read some convincing arguments that it may have an edge in cyberespionage/warfare, but it's always hard to judge those capabilities.