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by dakrisht 2287 days ago
Right. One issue we’re having globally is that we simply cannot get an accurate fatality rate.

We’re only seeing the sickest, most critical patients and the most overwhelmed hospital systems in cities.

I think MOST patients being tested in hotspots like Lombardy are those who are already at the hospital, and if you’re at the hospital you’re not in good shape.

Probably tons of positive cases at home with a fever, or mild symptoms or no symptoms.

And of course, tons of people who are not tested and probably never will be. Totally asymptomatic.

We can’t get an accurate fatality rate without these “infected but asymptomatic” cases.

Didn’t an Italian doctor do a small study showing 98% asymptomatic positive cases?
2 comments
CubsFan1060 2287 days ago
Germany currently looks to be an interesting case. As of CNN this morning, they have 13,957 cases confirmed, and 31 deaths. The deaths may of course crank up to a "normal" level, but I wonder if it's possible that they are testing many more people and getting a more accurate view.

(of course, this comment will probably age poorly)

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CubsFan1060 2287 days ago
Oh. This article says it way better than I could: https://www.ft.com/content/c0755b30-69bb-11ea-800d-da70cff6e...

Sorry about the paywall. If you search for it via google and click it from there that's how I found it (and why I didn't realize it was paywall)

Basic summary: Too Early to tell. But Germany is doing 160,000 tests/week, which is more than lots of countries. They may be getting a more complete picture of who is all infected.

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virgilp 2287 days ago
https://archive.is/ZeThk
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randcraw 2287 days ago
Absolute paywall.
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matthewdgreen 2287 days ago
We have enough data from closed experiments (Diamond Princess) to say that COVID sends 5% or more to the ICU. That’s the number that matters right now, not CFR. Fatality rate itself is much more dependent on whether the ICU beds are full (Italy, Iran) than anything else. Unfortunately, beds are about to be full in several US cities.
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CubsFan1060 2287 days ago
But that's not reliable either. Average age on the Diamond Princess was 58. With 1/3 being over 70. Average age in the US is 38, with 15.2% being over 65.

Given that age is a very large component here, I don't think you can extrapolate data from the Diamond Princess to the general population.

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sjg007 2287 days ago
It’ll saturate.
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