[matthewdgreen]

We have enough data from closed experiments (Diamond Princess) to say that COVID sends 5% or more to the ICU. That’s the number that matters right now, not CFR. Fatality rate itself is much more dependent on whether the ICU beds are full (Italy, Iran) than anything else. Unfortunately, beds are about to be full in several US cities.

[CubsFan1060]

But that's not reliable either. Average age on the Diamond Princess was 58. With 1/3 being over 70. Average age in the US is 38, with 15.2% being over 65.

Given that age is a very large component here, I don't think you can extrapolate data from the Diamond Princess to the general population.

[sjg007]

It’ll saturate.