[johnpowell]

Shit...

I have a thing scheduled for early next month. Not a full on surgery but it is pretty invasive and urgent and they require me to be in the hospital for a few days.

I'm not in New York but I am in hotbed for the current problem.

Interventional Radiology is somewhat specialized so hopefully there aren't any interruptions. But they do have about 20 beds in their unit of the hospital.

[perlwle]

I live in China. I have read many horror stories out of Wuhan, China after the local hospital got overloaded with patient.

1. People got infected couldn't be treated and had to stay home. See this video that the daughter of a sick mom trying to get attention by drumming in the balcony and crying for help. "My mom is dying and I am helpless" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuvA0XooI5c

2. people with long term illness or scheduled surgery couldn't be treated, such as leukemia patient need dialysis, because Major hospitals has directed all resources to treat coronavirus patients.

Work from home, cancel meetings, stay away from the crowd.

Wash hands, wear mask if you have to go out.

Get medical advice from your doctors ASAP if you fall into the second category.

Please get prepared for the worse and don't let this happen to you and your loved ones.

EDITED: add a youtube video

[softwaredoug]

Thanks for sharing your experience. My Mom is undergoing Chemotherapy, with a surgery scheduled in April. She has pancreatic cancer, which is a very tough cancer. They caught it early, and we were hopeful - until Covid 19. Now we have no idea how many delays, etc to expect.

Best wishes to you from an American. We're in this together!

[rst]

Unfortunately, in Italy, space for other hospital departments has had to be converted to extra space for acute COVID-19 cases. (And they're still overflowing, to the point of doing battlefield triage to determine which severe but potentially viable patients get the ventilators.) It would be very unfortunate for that to also happen here, but unfortunately, Seattle at least seems to be trending that way.

[jacquesm]

The USA is roughly 16 days behind Italy at the moment.

[Ninn]

US are not even testing, theres a ton of evidence that cases upon cases that match the description of corona does not get tested. The US could very well be much much futher ahead already than the current official claims.. Much like China was criticised for.

[lumost]

The USA is a much larger country with dramatically more hospital capacity. It's better to compare state by state numbers to Italy.

[remarkEon]

Italy has more hospital beds per person than the US, 3.18 (2017) vs 2.77 (2016 ... no Wiki data for 2017).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hosp...

[Laforet]

It might be better to look at beds available near the major disease clusters rather than a country as a whole, given that patients are unlikely to be transported around the country to fill the beds.

[remarkEon]

True, though I suspect that to make the picture in the US remarkably worse.

[jacquesm]

Italy actually has a pretty good healthcare system, especially in the North, better than in the States (unless you're rich). The bigger difference is that the Italian population skews older. And with the situation at US airports right now it looks like there is some bad news coming down in another two weeks or so.

[WillPostForFood]

If it is urgent, you might reach out to them and see if it can be moved forward.

[jacquesm]

I'd not count on that going through.

[asdfasgasdgasdg]

I don't think you can really know. This person needs to speak with their healthcare providers about timetables, possibly moving things up, etc. Some IR procedures are for seriously urgent issues, like cancer, and I don't think it's right to just toss out random assertions about what might happen in a ward we know nothing about.

[jacquesm]

Here is what is happening: non-emergency surgeries are cancelled all over the place right now to make room for more ICU capacity, to free up personnel and to ensure that those that are post-op and have their immune systems working overtime already are not exposed to one more very nasty virus.

So right now the situation is already changing, and rapidly so. Looking two weeks ahead I'd say that the chances that any non-emergency surgeries will be cancelled are much higher than today.

New York is but one example of the same pattern that you see happening over and over again and with an exponential spread (the early stages of any pandemic) two weeks is a very long time.

[asdfasgasdgasdg]

I'm aware that is happening. It seems like you are jumping from the fact that some non-urgent surgeries are being cancelled in some wards to an inference that this person's potentially more urgent surgery will be cancelled in the particular ward that was going to perform it.

I don't think that's right. There is no need for you to speculate in any case when that person is just sharing their worries. There's no upside.

[jacquesm]

Again, two weeks is a long time. All of the non-emergency surgeries in my own circle have been called off already and so far this region is - for now - doing ok. A little bit further South (35 miles) the hospitals are on 'Code Red', which means that there is no ICU capacity available, 'Code Black' is when they will start triaging, which is probably a few days away.

Because every operation has a chance of developing complications if there is no ICU capacity available the operations will be cancelled regardless of whether or not the operation itself is a risky one.

Also, this being a forum and the person making their statement in this forum I feel that I'm totally free to speculate. Forum participation invites speculation, and in this case my speculation is backed up by local experience. If that is not the kind of message you want to be passed on then fine but that's your opinion, which in this case you are more than welcome to spout as long as you realize that you have just as much right to do so as I do.

Oh, and in case you want a citation to go with this then maybe this will help you:

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1238817274590629888

[zozbot234]

Canceling non-urgent surgeries also helps as the hospital can cannibalize ventilators and other life support equipment from the operating rooms and use it as makeshift ICU capacity.

[nate_meurer]

Is the code red in place because ICUs are reserved, or are they already all in use?

[Spooky23]

The hospitals in New York are all preparing for a big surge.

The trauma hospital a few blocks from me has barricaded the entrances, and erected a giant tent as an ward for sick people.

[xnyan]

What are you talking about? Sorry, I don’t mean to be rude but what do you mean that there is no need to speculate? That is literally what humans do all the time for all of human existence.

Our medical situation, that is say that of the United States, is much worse than that of italy and it is so by design. That is an objective fact even though it’s not pleasant to think about. What makes you think we will be better off than Italy, even though we are in a weaker medical position? My argument is that panic is warrented.

[asdfasgasdgasdg]

> What are you talking about?

I am talking about it being rude to tell a person who needs a surgery, potentially for an issue that threatens their life, that they will not get it, when you don't actually know. It's just basic decency.

[fsckboy]

elective surgeries are cancelled.

he said his expected surgery is urgent.

you inserted the word emergency.

it's hard to follow an argument that proceeds this way.

[jacquesm]

Urgent is a term that is materially different from emergency in hospital parlance. I was laid up for a week with an 'urgent' surgery pending (twice!) because I kept being bumped by emergencies who needed it still much more than I did.

[fsckboy]

yes, but I believe that, while urgent can get bumped by emergency, urgent is not covered by elective and urgent can proceed when elective is banned.

[johnpowell]

Yeah, it is for cancer. From what I gather they need to go in through a vein in my leg and go up into my liver to inject some chemo and a oil to try and kill/starve the tumor. This all seems like witchcraft. I have been dealing with this sorcery for years. I google nothing. I just do what I am told. It is much easier that way. The radiologist and oncologist have agreed that this is the best option. I trust them.

And I will call Monday morning to see if they expect there to be a problem.

[jacquesm]

Best of luck man, that's super tough. Here's to hoping that they let you in, and that that chemo does its job well. That procedure is called embolization, if it works you're in and out on the same day. Hang in there.