[jacquesm]

Here is what is happening: non-emergency surgeries are cancelled all over the place right now to make room for more ICU capacity, to free up personnel and to ensure that those that are post-op and have their immune systems working overtime already are not exposed to one more very nasty virus.

So right now the situation is already changing, and rapidly so. Looking two weeks ahead I'd say that the chances that any non-emergency surgeries will be cancelled are much higher than today.

New York is but one example of the same pattern that you see happening over and over again and with an exponential spread (the early stages of any pandemic) two weeks is a very long time.

[asdfasgasdgasdg]

I'm aware that is happening. It seems like you are jumping from the fact that some non-urgent surgeries are being cancelled in some wards to an inference that this person's potentially more urgent surgery will be cancelled in the particular ward that was going to perform it.

I don't think that's right. There is no need for you to speculate in any case when that person is just sharing their worries. There's no upside.

[jacquesm]

Again, two weeks is a long time. All of the non-emergency surgeries in my own circle have been called off already and so far this region is - for now - doing ok. A little bit further South (35 miles) the hospitals are on 'Code Red', which means that there is no ICU capacity available, 'Code Black' is when they will start triaging, which is probably a few days away.

Because every operation has a chance of developing complications if there is no ICU capacity available the operations will be cancelled regardless of whether or not the operation itself is a risky one.

Also, this being a forum and the person making their statement in this forum I feel that I'm totally free to speculate. Forum participation invites speculation, and in this case my speculation is backed up by local experience. If that is not the kind of message you want to be passed on then fine but that's your opinion, which in this case you are more than welcome to spout as long as you realize that you have just as much right to do so as I do.

Oh, and in case you want a citation to go with this then maybe this will help you:

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1238817274590629888

[zozbot234]

Canceling non-urgent surgeries also helps as the hospital can cannibalize ventilators and other life support equipment from the operating rooms and use it as makeshift ICU capacity.

[nate_meurer]

Is the code red in place because ICUs are reserved, or are they already all in use?

[jacquesm]

Almost all filled up, expected to fill up today or tomorrow.

Dutch:

https://www.omroepbrabant.nl/nieuws/3171310/Code-rood-in-de-...

[Spooky23]

The hospitals in New York are all preparing for a big surge.

The trauma hospital a few blocks from me has barricaded the entrances, and erected a giant tent as an ward for sick people.

[xnyan]

What are you talking about? Sorry, I don’t mean to be rude but what do you mean that there is no need to speculate? That is literally what humans do all the time for all of human existence.

Our medical situation, that is say that of the United States, is much worse than that of italy and it is so by design. That is an objective fact even though it’s not pleasant to think about. What makes you think we will be better off than Italy, even though we are in a weaker medical position? My argument is that panic is warrented.

[asdfasgasdgasdg]

> What are you talking about?

I am talking about it being rude to tell a person who needs a surgery, potentially for an issue that threatens their life, that they will not get it, when you don't actually know. It's just basic decency.

[jacquesm]

Your presumption is fairly incredible. (1) I wasn't talking to you and (2) maybe that person would rather be informed than bamboozled with feel good news that ends up being false.

Basic decency is to assume that people can think for themselves and do not need to be treated like toddlers with feel good lies and cotton balls.

[asdfasgasdgasdg]

Along the lines of assuming people can think for themselves, the person who originally commented clearly knew that there was a possibility that their surgery would be cancelled. They expressed as much in their comment. What did your blunt speculation add? You know less about the situation than the person you were replying to, and on the basis of that ignorance jumped to an unfounded conclusion.

I would have written what you said this way: "you should reach out to your doctor. In my neighborhood a lot of surgeries have been getting cancelled." It is not one whit less truthful or honest than your comment, but it is more sensitive, at least to my ear.

Your approach to this thread calls to mind an imaginary surgeon who leaves the OR and tells the family, "sorry, he's dead." Nothing wrong with that bedside manner, is there? No need to treat them like toddlers.

I'm finished with this. I've said my piece and you disagree. Ah, well.

[jacquesm]

You are ignoring the fact that there are official calls to suspend all non-emergency surgery and that there are a lot of hospitals already doing this. My comment was meant informative, not to put that person down.

Your strawman is ignored.

[fsckboy]

elective surgeries are cancelled.

he said his expected surgery is urgent.

you inserted the word emergency.

it's hard to follow an argument that proceeds this way.

[jacquesm]

Urgent is a term that is materially different from emergency in hospital parlance. I was laid up for a week with an 'urgent' surgery pending (twice!) because I kept being bumped by emergencies who needed it still much more than I did.

[fsckboy]

yes, but I believe that, while urgent can get bumped by emergency, urgent is not covered by elective and urgent can proceed when elective is banned.