Of course. Keep in mind, I'm not saying that this situation isn't serious. I'm saying I have sufficient faith in the framework of the United States, even in light of the virus, that I'm not willing to trade it for the frameworks of China and South Korea. I'm also not saying necessarily anything derogative about either of those countries.
Not to be blasé, but its clear you're not a wage worker. Many people will be out of a job and be unable to pay rent. I have several friends who are ALREADY in the process of being laid off as businesses around Seattle practically shutter. We need a rent/mortgage holiday for both people and businesses in order to keep things afloat.
I’m perfectly fine with a >=50% loss in the market if it gets us to consider national paid sick leave and Medicare for all seriously.
We need to seriously reconsider the incentives of those who even if tested positive for Coronavirus would still not be able to miss work.
This is coming from someone whose nominal 401k portfolio is going down a Tesla per day. Why am I not upset?? — the infrastructure is still there; iMessage still works, AWS still works, there are still oil rigs in operation, it is just the amount of money we are willing to pay for securities has changed.
The problems is those people who don't like paid sick leave and m4a are zealots and it will take more than a pandemic to change their minds. They mind agree that government should help out when it comes to depression era issues but otherwise they don't want anything like that in "normal" economic times. I think the progressive mindset that most people have on reddit and HN are really only 10-20% of the population.
No I’m just a business owner who hasn’t paid himself a salary in over a year despite paying the salaries of many others. But yes let’s just keep throwing out those stereotypes. I am deeply concerned both for myself, my family, my church (which has so many 80+ year olds it might cease to exist in 90 days), my colleagues who my ability to pay is rapidly dwindling, etc.
I actually really hope someone does check back in a couple of months and see if people still think their gloominess about financial matters was warranted.
IMHO gloominess about financial matters will be warranted, but probably not in the way people expect. I think the stock market will have mostly recovered, most people (who don't work for small businesses) will still have their jobs - but we're going to have very significant inflation, perhaps even hyperinflation. The Fed just injected what, $2T over the last week into a supply-side shock. Prices are going to go up anyway because of supply chain disruptions now facing 75% of companies, and then on top of that we have a massive amount of liquidity being injected. I think it very likely that that'll kickstart higher inflation expectations, which are hard to tamp down once they've started. Best case we get 1970s-style 15-20%/year inflation. Worst case we get 1920s-style Weimar hyperinflation.
I did just read this [1] and do agree that the strategy in South Korea was productive. I think a variant of that where local hospitals provide testing could be useful here in the US.
As for inflation, I think we are little too early to point to one outcome as the likely one. Right now my view is that I can either let my mind go into full freak out mode or I can think about the fact that I do have fairly extensive contacts of people who are first responders, healthcare workers, research scientists, policy makers, innovators and I trust them. If I can trust them, then I can trust that the overall system is going to work imperfect as it is.
The part that frightens me is that every doctor I know is totally freaking out right now. If practicing medical doctors said it was going to be okay, I think I'd trust them. That's not what they're saying.
I'm fine with that. As I bet this all turns out to be a nothing burger in reality vs the sky is falling approach that's leading us into a bad recession. No one is concerned over the panddemic of obesity and I guarantee more people will die this year from heart attacks and other obesity related deaths and no one freaks out over those.
People who care enough about their life/health/wellbeing to freak out about being obese aren't going to find themselves waking up the next day obese. The same can't be said for corona virus.
I've seen this argument too. The thing is, we need a war time level response in manufacturing to prevent massive death.
That response will probably not happen until the current system is somewhat strained. 6 days after that point, there will be twice the number of cases.
I have no doubt we could respond to this given more time, but it is simply moving to quickly.