No one knows, no one will know until it's over, and anyone telling the opposite is lying. It's impossible to time or predict the market, especially in crisis like these.
People bought boeing stocks at the dip, a few months ago, needless to say this wasn't the best time to buy.
If asking HN for financial advice is your strategy I'd probably reconsider. But the vastly contradictory replies you've already received probably already told you that.
You should pay off your house as fast as possible. This reduces risk greatly because you always have a place to live in the worst case.
You should max out your IRA and 401k plans, or whatever similar applies to you. However that should be regular investments by a plan that you arranged years ago and don't even bother to revisit. When asked their 401k strategy the most common answer of those with the best returns "I don't have a 401k" - which is to say you set it up at 30 and forget about it until you retire.
As long you have tolerance for it to keep dropping further you’ll be fine. Don’t expect to know where the bottom there is.
People forget the second part of the famous saying. “But when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.
Do not invest if you need the money in the short-term or what you can't afford to lose. I'd be very hesitant to invest with debt financing.
In all likely hood it will recover, but no-one knows when how far long out that will be and you never want to be in a position where you're forced to sell.
> Is now a bad time to put 20% of my savings into the market?
You're getting a lot of bad advice here, but you also haven't given us the full picture.
First question is: What is your goal? Are you planning to invest this money for retirement and not withdraw it for several decades? Or do you expect to need these funds for some major purchase in the next 5 years? The answer to that question will greatly influence the correct course of action.
Second, what's your risk tolerance? Most people don't know their own risk tolerance until they see their portfolio drop 20% like this. If you invested today and the market dropped another 20%, would you be able to sleep at night? Would you be tempted to panic sell to limit your losses? Would you check your balance so much all day every day that you can't perform well at your job? If so, you should start slower with something like investing 1% of your savings per week. Do not invest that entire 20% all at once.
That would allow to invest what he wanted in 2 years.
But the market is likely to ~80% recover in 6 months.
> Most people don't know their own risk tolerance until they see their portfolio drop 20% like this.
Yes: risk tolerance is a very important consideration - thank you for explaining that.
But how to find that limit to the risk tolerance in a reasonable time?
I'd suggest ~1% of portfolio investment per day, but only on down days. Do not invest on up days.
it's early. Usually steep consecutive drops take a while to recover. You might miss the very bottom, but you'll do better than jumping in too quickly. Relax and watch it, cash in this moment is a good thing to have.
IMO, its a very good time. I'd suggest spacing the investments out over a period of time (maybe 2-3 months), though. If it keeps going down for a while, this will lower your total cost of purchasing shares. Obviously the downside is that it would slightly decrease your returns if things move back up in the short term.
This is why you Dollar Cost Average though. You do the same thing the 3rd and 4th time it happens. It's extremely unlikely there will be a 5th, 6th, etc (if there is, we probably have more important things to worry about like 25% of the world dying)
>Risk-averse investors who prefer dollar-averaging can accomplish the aim of risk reduction more effectively by lowering the fraction of funds invested in the risky asset and investing them all at once.
If you invest the same total amount of money for a constant exposure to the market measured in funds*time in the market, you have higher risk choosing to rely more strongly on the later years (which is DCA) than evenly spreading out the exposure over time (which is lump-sum investing). Theory is very simple. Lump sum is diversification and DCA is the opposite - diversification is a "free lunch" producing lower risk with higher returns.
Yes, it's a bad time. In that there is absolutely no understanding of where the bottom might be, and anyone claiming otherwise is a charlatan or a fool.
While shares have been pummeled, for many large caps this just erases a few months of gains during a particularly frothy period. If some airlines start declaring bankruptcy, Boeing declares bankruptcy, etc., things can get a lot worse.
In the coming months the actual financial impact is going to start hitting a lot of organizations.
It isn't contradicting at all. It's a bad time because it is hyper volatile, and there is a lot more room for it to drop than to gain.
That doesn't mean it will drop. It means that saying "it's a good time to buy everything is on sale!" is absurd but common (and people have been saying it since the first drop on February 24th, and will never learn from their wrong advice). There are few scenarios where there is going to be a rapid rise in the market in the near future.
No one can tell you. Consider this though. It is highly likely that the US will institute a lock down in the next few weeks. Exponential growth is nothing to be trifled with. Major world economies may stay in partial lockdown until we have enough herd immunity for our hospitals not to get destroyed by this virus. Most estimates have a possible vaccine 12-18 months out. I doubt the markets have priced this in, because it's practically unfathomable. But the US is running out of options and the virus is already spreading widely here.
People seem to ignore the relative success of South Korea. Wouldn't say life is normal, but it's not under lockdown and new cases have dramatically fallen.
If I had cash lying around or was less skittish about leveraging myself, I'd be buying here.
What’s the indicator that this is the bottom? Stocks fell last night as soon as Trump opened his mouth. Stock market has been Wile E Coyote running on air for years, now the market is looking at the ground. America has a government incapable of sensible action. There’s a real possibility that the republic ceases to exist within the year, after Trump tries to delay or invalidate the election (and if you think this is far-fetched, recall that’s what his pal Giuliani tried to do after 9/11, so it’s in their playbook).
There’s non-zero volume and interest in S&P future puts striking at 1000. There’s plenty of potential downside.