| Here are estimates from MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College: => Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1% (including those who with mild cases and don't go to see doctors) => Estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for travellers outside mainland China (mix severe & milder cases) 1%-5% => Estimated CFR for detected cases in Hubei (severe cases) 18% The last line (18%) applies when the outbreak becomes prevalent in an area and overwhelm hospital capacity. No country has sufficient ventilators, ECMO machines, and medical staff if infections become widespread since about 20% of infections requires hospitalization. People who need medical care from other causes would suffer from resource shortages as well. If not contained, dozens of cities around the world may become Hubei! Marc Lipsitch, Professor of Epidemiology at Harvard, believes that it might infect 40-70% of population (excl. kids) without effective control measures.
His articles here: https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1232504457377861632 -- Reference: Report 4 here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana... From Report 6: "we estimated that about two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide, potentially resulting in multiple chains of as yet undetected human-to-human transmission outside mainland China." For concise interviews with experts and other info: Follow their Twitter at @MRC_Outbreak https://twitter.com/MRC_Outbreak |