[simonh]

The point is that if doctors had been free to investigate and alert the existence of the disease very early on, it might have been contained to a small number of cases right from the start, and never gained any traction in the population in the first place.

The first few weeks of an outbreak are absolutely crucial, and the Chinese authorities actively obstructed efforts to address the issue in that period precisely because of their authoritarian system.

[Cookingboy]

Well from what we've seen in Japan and South Korea, that seems to be far from guaranteed. Those countries had all the warnings they needed, and knew much more about the virus than the earlier days, yet they still failed to contain the initially small outbreaks.

[johnchristopher]

How can they have all the warnings they needed if China didn't give them the right info from the start ? That 27 days incubation period got a lot of people infected and becoming carriers. It's like, China had a relatively well defined outbreak center while other countries started with a wide spread invisible web of carriers.

[oefrha]

A single cruise ship is about as well defined as targets can get. It’s pretty damn hard to blame anyone else for completely screwing that up.

[Aeolun]

Japan started with a swarm of Chinese visitors during Chinese new year. Hardly an auspicious beginning.

[Cookingboy]

>How can they have all the warnings they needed if China didn't give them the right info from the start

So what country gave China info from the start? Japan and SK had a lot more info with regard to the disease (human to human transmission, asymptotic transmission, 14 days incubation period, hell even the RNA sequence was done on the virus) than what China had at the beginning.

[johnchristopher]

I don't understand your statement. WHO didn't hid any information from China, neither other countries did. What kind of info could they have given to China when they didn't even know there was an outbreak (much less when China didn't even want to acknowledge it) ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_ou...

Having more info once contaminated people got reported doesn't change the fact that weeks went by with potential carriers spreading everywhere unchecked.

[lazylizard]

maybe not all. but from the moment china admitted they had an outbreak. maybe a more wary country would...ban all non-local travelers from china , quarantine all locals travelling from china, stop all flights to-and-from china, revoke all visas of chinese people...etc

[celticninja]

Also China could have prevented people leaving, but by allowing infected people to leave they ensure that China does not need to fight it in isolation, and is not impacted more than other countries, ie. crab mentality

[simonh]

When you have an initial outbreak, you have a single original source of the incident and no possibility of people outside the area bringing in additional sources of the virus, because the virus hasn't spread outside the area yet. If you contain it locally, you have contained it completely, full stop.

The situation for other countries is completely different. Someone could fly into Japan right now from anywhere in the world carrying the contagion at any time. It was brought into Japan by multiple carriers at different times and different places. You can contain one incoming source, and three more will spring up. It's a completely different problem.

[bluGill]

No you don't, there is 27 days incubation factor which means 27 days before the initial outbreak for things to spread and no possible way to do anything about that. Then you have whatever time for doctors to identify that this is something new and a big deal, again time that things can spread without your ability to control it.

[lbeltrame]

The 27 days incubation is the maximum observed time. The median time is about 8 days.

[celticninja]

In part likely due to the fact that China misled everyone so significantly in the beginning other countries could not plan appropriately

[Cookingboy]

Ok, which part did China mislead people? China told the world the virus can be transmitted asymptomatically, can be transmitted human to human, with a 14 days incubation period, and provided all the clinical data.

[celticninja]

Probably worth reading this:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/26/the-re...

[celticninja]

It misled people by hiding the extent of the problem, by harassing and prosecuting doctors who were raising awareness. Their first response was to suppress warnings.

[brutt]

It doesn't looks so. Chinese scientist did research and found that virus was originated outside of Wuhan. It just became wide spread in Wuhan. IMHO, it's from Koltsovo.

[throw0101a]

> It just became wide spread in Wuhan. IMHO, it's from Koltsovo.

What?

The great circle distance between Koltsovo Airport (USSS) and Wuhan Tianhe International Airport (ZHHH) is 5000km:

* http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?&DU=km&P=USSS-ZHHH

And here I thought you were serious... until I looked at a map.

[Hoasi]

> IMHO, it's from Koltsovo

Why do you think it comes from Koltsovo, in Russia?

[simonh]

There was an explosion at a virology lab in Koltsovo in September last year. There were no reported infections as a result and no apparent cases of Coronavirus or anything like it in the area or any established link with Wuhan, but apparently actual evidence isn't required for some people to come to all sorts of conclusions.

[seppin]

> There was an explosion at a virology lab

Why are conspiracy theories so irresistible to so many people?

[simonh]

The idea that we are in possession of special knowledge or rare insights is very compelling. This is especially true if we often find ourselves disbelieved or shown to be wrong on a regular basis, because it creates a justification for being marginalised. Ok those people might be clever, but I know things they don't so I'm still special. As a result people will consciously seek out unlikely connections or speculative ideas and latch on to them to try to get ahead of the pack.

[seppin]

> The idea that we are in possession of special knowledge or rare insights is very compelling.

There's also evidence that people with lower levels of schooling particularly like conspiracy because it allows them to make sense of a chaotic world. Instead of feeling powerless and hopeless, they have a truth not even the smart and powerful have.

It is of course not true, but therein lies the appeal.

[brutt]

This is not a special knowledge. Just Google it: Vector, Koltsevo, 16.09.2019. Moreover, even if outbreak will be traced back to Koltsevo (because it's only one bio-laboratory which had this virus), explosion will be used as excuse.

[hempti]

I knew a ex-friend in school a few years back. He has schizophrenia.

He tells you that he knows people in the chines government and other stuff.

You know what the problem here is? You just don't know who is posting.

[brutt]

So, if we will test all workers in Vector, then we will find nobody with antibodies for corona-virus, right?

[brutt]

If explosion can break all windows in the lab, then it can break some vials too.

Koltsevo-Harbin route was used regularly by tourists.

[simonh]

It gets even weaker, Harbin is the opposite end of China from Wuhan and has the second lowest levels of the disease of all the regions in China, beaten only by Tibet. But if it was spread to tourists through the population in Koltsovo, how come there isn't a significant outbreak in Koltsovo? How many Chinese tourists were given the special tour of a blown up virology lab?

[brutt]

I don't know. I need list of passengers from Koltsevo to Wuhan to make conclusion. I cannot get it. IF this is incidental, I will suspect a student with asymptomatic infection.