[adaisadais]

Under Armour still owns a lot of digital assets (1). I think this set back will help UA prepare for future successes.

Bold Prediction: I think by 2035 neither Nike, Adidas, or Under Armour will be the dominant shoe brand. I believe we will have a new company which will change the game dynamically. A new Apple or Tesla of shoes.

(1) https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/under-a...

[unlinked_dll]

More likely that Nike becomes the AB InBev of shoes and just acquires little brands that have any chance of growing big enough to be a threat

[tpetry]

Depending on which market you look at its already the case. Good running shoes are not vought from any of these brands, soccer shoes is mainly adidas/nike and just for fashion there could be a new company every day. Its just branding.

[techwizrd]

I don't think this statement is true:

> Good running shoes are not vought from any of these brands

The Nike Vaporfly has made numerous headlines[0] for "technology doping" because runners are using it to win marathons. From the recent NYC marathon, Nike and Adidas dominated in comparison to other shoe brands[1]:

> Of the total 36 podium finishers, 25 were wearing Nike shoes

> Of the 12 winners, 8 were wearing Nike shoes

> Adidas comes second with 6 podium finishers and 2 winners

> Other brands are Brooks (2 podiums), Asics, Saucony and New Balance (1 podium each)

0: https://www.npr.org/2020/01/31/801580146/amid-nike-controver...

1: https://www.runningshoesguru.com/2018/11/shoes-of-the-winner...

[chrisBob]

Shoes of the winning marathoners tells you what brand is sponsoring the runners. The sponsorship has a tremendous impact on who wins major races. The shoes don't have that much of an impact.

[rconti]

Wrong. Nikes have been a straight up sensation the past couple of years, and in particular the past 6 months.

Go to any race. The field is STACKED with people running vaporflys. I see it at our running club. People are suddenly paying their own money to buy the same Nike shoe, when in the past people used kind of whatever they preferred.

Tune in to the olympic marathon trials February 29. I bet the vast majority of the field will be wearing the exact same shoe.

[jfengel]

And not just because they're being paid to. They're setting records. Records are falling unusually fast, and by substantial margins.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-athletics-shoe-factbox/fa...

[nradov]

That's just dead wrong. Multiple independent researchers have verified that the latest Nike running shoes are more efficient than any competitors. In these distance running events even a tiny improvement can be the difference between 1st place and 11th. The lion's share of prize money and recognition goes to the top 3; everyone else barely gets mentioned.

[dilyevsky]

Clearly you haven’t run any marathons recently. Most serious runners with money to spend are now using nike by my observation

[wmeredith]

Read your parent commenter's linked articles. Your statement is demonstrably false.

[sputknick]

not a crazy prediction. My prediction: Amazon. I have a few pairs of their branded shoes. Simple, cheap, effective. People will eventually realize the newest neat-o feature in the latest shoes are not that big a deal.

[_jal]

> People will eventually realize the newest neat-o feature in the latest shoes are not that big a deal.

Absolutely. Any day now, humans will lose their taste for novelty and fashion.

Invest in burlap!

[wmeredith]

People do this all the time. It's called your forties and it's when marketers stop caring about you.

[chatmasta]

So everyone will become a dad? Lol

If we see a new shoe company, it will be an athlete-run business that comes from someone like Lebron or Curry starting their own brand. But Nike / UA would never let that happen which is why they pay them millions of dollars in endorsements. And if it did happen, Nike would acquire the new company in short order.

[rebuilder]

This seems to me to be the exact opposite of how the shoe business works now.

[zelly]

Shoes are a Zahavian signal. It doesn't matter how comfortable or convenient the shoes are. Its primary purpose beyond protection of your feet is to prove you are with it. Same applies to iPhones and designer clothes.

[mrosett]

I think you underestimate the power of endorsements.