[jknoepfler]

On a crude first pass, I will accept any combination of the following datasets, assuming they are updated in 2020 and 2021:

HadCRUT4 (from UK Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit)

GISTEMP from the NASA GISS

MLOST from the NOAA

JMA from the Japan Meteorological Agency

I'm open to other datasets. I'm not choosy.

[lazyjones]

So, you would have lost the bet in 2016 and 2017. Did climate get colder?

[jknoepfler]

no, a noisy measure around a globally increasing trend line went down.

I believe that the noisy measure goes up, on average, because it is (noisily) measuring a warming climate. I'll make that bet every year, and I will come out ahead...

using the trend line, you could set odds at which the betting on a colder 2021 would be the correct bet - but it isn't 50/50, which it would be if the process were random noise.

as a professional poker player I'm not surprised by this argument, but I am saddened.

edit: do you actually not understand the basics of statistical inference? this is like, middle-level high school math.

[lazyjones]

> * I'll make that bet every year, and I will come out ahead...*

Good luck with that, but you first asked about one year (next year), which is a different matter altogether.

> (edit: do you actually not understand the basics of statistical inference? this is like, middle-level high school math.

I completely understand your point and how you are trying to move the goalpost from an easily refutable argument to something more useful. Perhaps your "professional poker player" mind doesn't understand that recent increases/decreases in temperature averages affect next year's weather, whereas past poker games don't affect your current one.