[lazyjones]

> * I'll make that bet every year, and I will come out ahead...*

Good luck with that, but you first asked about one year (next year), which is a different matter altogether.

> (edit: do you actually not understand the basics of statistical inference? this is like, middle-level high school math.

I completely understand your point and how you are trying to move the goalpost from an easily refutable argument to something more useful. Perhaps your "professional poker player" mind doesn't understand that recent increases/decreases in temperature averages affect next year's weather, whereas past poker games don't affect your current one.