[jason13579]

Quantum Computing is now at the stage that standard ICs have been at in the early sixties. Back than, chips where made of of a few dozen transistors and couldn’t really do anything. It will take a while for quantum computers to really become a threat to cryptography, though at some point they definitely will (in my opinion).

Regarding the „except possibly contrived problems designed to be fast on quantum computers“ part: That’s their entire purpose. They cannot and will never be faster for all applications compared to a classical computer. They are designed to solve some very special problems efficiently, such as solving dlog and RSA using Shor‘s algorithm or database search using Grover.

[tialaramex]

The key word you missed was contrived. The current problems solved to produce "Quantum supremacy" are basically "What would this quantum computer do?" and yup, the current quantum computers can answer that by doing it and a simulation is harder, but this is a contrived question.

Shor's or Grover's aren't contrived problems, they're real problems which is why they're interesting. And none of today's quantum computers can run these for non-trivial inputs.

[buzzkillington]

What's Moore's law like for quantum computers?

[c1own]

We have Neven's law: https://www.quantamagazine.org/does-nevens-law-describe-quan... which states that quantum computers are getting doubly-exponentially better relative to classical computers. First, they are exponentially better than classical computers. Second, they are getting exponentially better. Hence, Neven's law. One needs to define "better" formally (with number of qubits, gate fidelities, coherence times,...) to graph progress, but the idea is that they can do more.

[wbl]

BQP is not NP. There is an exponential speedup for very few interesting problems.