[c1own]

We have Neven's law: https://www.quantamagazine.org/does-nevens-law-describe-quan... which states that quantum computers are getting doubly-exponentially better relative to classical computers. First, they are exponentially better than classical computers. Second, they are getting exponentially better. Hence, Neven's law. One needs to define "better" formally (with number of qubits, gate fidelities, coherence times,...) to graph progress, but the idea is that they can do more.

[wbl]

BQP is not NP. There is an exponential speedup for very few interesting problems.