[tpmx]

So what's the incarceration rate for black men (or black fathers) in the typical age where they have children? (I guess ~18-35?) Seems like this stat should be publicly available.

Perhaps I'm naive, but I can't imagine it to be more than 15% of this population [and that would be pretty extreme]. If that's the case, how can incarceration be considered a major cause of these fathers "failing from showing up?" (I guess we'd need a number for that, too..)

[cm2012]

Roughly 1 in 9 black men between 20-34 are currently incarcerated (11%). It's probably a much higher percentage that have been incarcerated in the last 3 years.

https://images.app.goo.gl/YkRnZyqdV4M5dSC19

[tpmx]

1. That's an insanely large part of that population.

2. 11% still doesn't go a long way in explaining the "fatherless issue", although we probably need firm numbers on that too.

[cm2012]

"For boys born in 2001, the lifetime probability of incarceration is estimated to be 32 percent for young black men."

That's absolutely enough to tilt the data significantly.

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/11/mass-incarceration-statis...

[tpmx]

Yikes. Still, it doesn't change the father-away issue fundamentally, I think?

[wavefunction]

11% may even seem like a small number until you consider that not all the black men who have been incarcerated at least once in their life are currently incarcerated. 25% of black and hispanic men will face incarceration at least once in their life[0]. The incarceration is also skewed towards younger men who are one supposes potentially more likely to miss out on the formative years of their children's lives. It's also difficult for a strong family to develop in this situation imo. Life is about getting a good start and keeping that momentum going as steadily and predictably as possible.

[0]https://bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/Llgsfp.pdf

[intrepidhero]

11% is a huge and totally unacceptable number. We need to get our shit together.

[SlowRobotAhead]

I can’t say why users are tying to hide you post.

The incarceration rate for blacks is lower than the rate of fathers not being around for their offspring. That’s a fact.

Anyone arguing that the entire problem is “we’re just locking up all these otherwise-would-be-there fathers because it’s a fun game to lock blacks up” is ignoring the reality.

I don’t have a strong opinion on it either way, but I’ve seen much better arguments that the welfare system has allowed for the higher rate of non-nuclear families. That it doesn’t take two parents to provide so the rate of single parents increased. Seems logical enough.

[cm2012]

Except - there is almost no cash welfare system in the US. Pretty much just healthcare and food stamps for the poorest.

[SlowRobotAhead]

> Except - there is almost no cash welfare system in the US

Now; there is LESS cash welfare in the US than there was. TANIF was reformed in 1996. There is still SSI/Disability, SNAP, child support as cash or cash equivalency. I support those programs, but also recognize that it is possible government handouts have contributed to the decline of the nuclear family.