[paulcole]

> what happens if iot LTE connections get cheap enough that the choice is removed altogether

Just like what happens when any product you like gets discontinued. You either accept the drawbacks of the alternatives and pick the next best choice or you do without it altogether.

If this really becomes TV with LTE or not TV, you’ll quickly see how little people truly care. Think back to 2008-2010 and the anti-smartphone people. How many of them are still holding out?

[8bitsrule]

Once people learn how much they can do without, they tend to find it quite liberating. I haven't seen the numbers, but I've heard from a reputable source that a significant portion of the populace does not own a mobile phone.

When a product I like (because it improves the quality of my life) gets discontinued, I look for a quality replacement. If I can't find one, I briefly mourn that and move on. Crap is crap (much of modern tech is nothing more) and there's plenty of quality to be found outside of paying for crap.

Life without products is actually possible. So was life without breakfast, before General Mills spent a fortune promoting it as an essential.

[paulcole]

> The vast majority of Americans – 96% – now own a cellphone of some kind.

https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/

[arpa]

Surprisingly many, as market for dumbphones and burners show. You can still buy a dumbphone.

[Dunedan]

Well, you can, but only 2G dumb phones. So they'll stop working wherever 2G networks get shut off for good. If you want a more future-proof 4G phone, even the "dumb" phones are actually pretty smart. Most of them come with Linux-based KaiOS [1] which even includes an app store out of the box.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KaiOS

[sudosysgen]

Nope, you can buy LTE capable dumb phones. My local Walmart has them.

[Dunedan]

Can you please provide some more information regarding these phones? I skimmed through Walmart's online store, but couldn't find any dumb 4G phones there. I'd be really interested to learn if they sell 4G capable feature phones not running KaiOS.

[sudosysgen]

It's been a while ago but I think it was either a Kyocera, or one of those Samsung dumb phones.

Otherwise there's also the 3310 refresh, although that's 3G.

[Dunedan]

3G phones are unfortunately no better choice than 2G phones, because the 3G networks of most operators will be not running much longer than their 2G networks. Here in Europe operators often even plan to shut down their 3G networks prior to their 2G networks.

Kyocera indeed seems to have some 4G "dumb" feature phones: https://www.kyoceramobile.com/phones/?filter=type:basic#

That's quite interesting. Thanks for the pointers.

[ghaff]

I sort of wonder how dumbphone sales split out between:

- I don't need/want to pay for/know how to use a computer in my pocket. A phone is all I need.

- My kid just needs a phone for emergencies. A smartphone will be a distraction

- An actual burner phone for whatever purpose.

[hanniabu]

Also the too poor crowd. I think the only reason they still exist is because 3rd world countries use them. Although even 3rd world countries are getting upgraded to smart phones as cheap low level ones enter the market. I give it maybe 3 years until they're no longer being offered.

[ghaff]

I'm not sure I'd bet against you but, so long as they remain the best way to communicate by voice/text more or less anonymously (in a world where pay phones are mostly no longer an option), I expect they'll remain as a niche for illegal, quasi-legal, etc. use at least.

I suppose that smartphones can in principle be equivalently anonymous but, in practice, it's probably harder and there are more opportunities to leak identity.

[johnnycab]

The market for 'dumbphones' is living on borrowed time; once all the remaining CSP's have Refarmed 2G/3G spectrum and allocated it for other uses such as IoT/M2M and diversified into adjacent digital services, it will disappear sooner than you think. Next up, 4G ─ whose demise will be far more easier to orchestrate.

https://1ot.mobi/resources/blog/a-complete-overview-of-2g-3g...

[paulcole]

81% of American adults own a smartphone. Not surprisingly the 50+ demographic is least likely to own one. You’re correct that the non-smart phone market currently exists but pretty soon it’s going to be down to one or two choices at most.

https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/