[ghaff]

I sort of wonder how dumbphone sales split out between:

- I don't need/want to pay for/know how to use a computer in my pocket. A phone is all I need.

- My kid just needs a phone for emergencies. A smartphone will be a distraction

- An actual burner phone for whatever purpose.

[hanniabu]

Also the too poor crowd. I think the only reason they still exist is because 3rd world countries use them. Although even 3rd world countries are getting upgraded to smart phones as cheap low level ones enter the market. I give it maybe 3 years until they're no longer being offered.

[ghaff]

I'm not sure I'd bet against you but, so long as they remain the best way to communicate by voice/text more or less anonymously (in a world where pay phones are mostly no longer an option), I expect they'll remain as a niche for illegal, quasi-legal, etc. use at least.

I suppose that smartphones can in principle be equivalently anonymous but, in practice, it's probably harder and there are more opportunities to leak identity.