[imglorp]

Electrics are still milking the premium market, is the problem.

In the West, a brand new Ninja 400 fuel injected sport bike is $US 5000, new. Through economies of scale, and their getting the bugs out and widening tolerances over its 30 years history, they're now the AK-47 of bikes: cheap and dependable. You can spend $20k on a bike, but you don't need to. Similar Honda and Suzuki models. Harley and BMW can't and won't touch this part of the market.

The Zero starts at $US 11k but you need to spend more like 18k to get something as useful as the current gas bikes.

[IgorPartola]

This is correct. Also consider that almost any Japanese bike can be had used for $3k or under. Electric bikes are in low five figures and the used market is basically non-existent. We have no data on how reliable they will be long term either. Plus range and availability of charging stations is a thing.

But I think the main reason we won’t see ICE motorcycles go away soon is simply because used bikes are such a huge market. You can buy a 1970s Honda and get it to run again very cheaply and it will just plugging along. You can’t do that with cars for the most part and the safety features have improved with cars with every decade while for motorcycles they have only improved substantially in 2010s with the EU mandating ABS as a requirement. So a 2005 bike is going to be essentially the same as a 1975 one, safety-wise. I would bet in 2070 people will absolutely be riding 100 year old bikes.

[peatmoss]

> while for motorcycles they have only improved substantially in 2010s with the EU mandating ABS as a requirement.

I really wish it were possible to get advanced cornering ABS on something that isn’t a bajillion cc displacement. The smallest, most reasonably sized adventure touring bike I’ve seen with cornering ABS is the new BMW F750GS, which is still >800cc. I sat on one the other day and the weight and height seemed manageable, but what I’d love is a 650cc or smaller Japanese bike where I could get advanced safety tech. I mean, these bikes are where a lot of new riders like myself start, and attract exactly the sort of rider who is likely to do something stupid and reactionary in a corner.

I have ABS on my 500cc Honda, which is honestly as big a bike as I’d have wanted to start on, and I’d have happily parted with the extra dollars for cornering ABS and traction control had they been options. I cannot for the life of me figure out why the best life-saving tech isn’t at least an option on beginner-sized bikes.

Pardon for the tangent rant :-)

[Zenbit_UX]

I'd suggest taking a look at a gentpy used Triumph Street Triple (R/S Optional). Depending on the year and mileage you're looking between $6000-9000 with stock ABS and with 675cc right in that sweet spot you're looking for. I picked one up 2 years ago, 2014 with 1400km and no regrets whatsoever.

[peatmoss]

I think cornering ABS is only available on the new 1050? I think that’s also the case with the Tiger (I’m part of the adventure-touring market segment). You can get cornering ABS on the huge 1200, but not the 800, IIRC.

Like, I want a 500cc Honda twin with cornering ABS. As it is, I have ABS, but cornering ABS looks like a solid evolution.

[gpapilion]

What makes this a reality is that bikes are driven far less as daily drivers than cars are so typically the engines aren’t abused or used outside of a recreational(long trips, weekend runs, ...) setting by most riders. A ten year old bike may only have 30k miles on it, and most of its useful life left.

This has been my experience in the US, at least.

[dharmab]

I have a bot that scrapes used motorcycle listings for sale in my part of the US [1], and I've never seen anything listed with more than 70k miles.

Furthermore, those 70k mile bikes were all meticulously maintained by older owners, and I could have bought any of them for under $4k and probably ridden coast to coast the next day without issue.

[1] https://github.com/dharmab/ksl-bike-sniper

[gambiting]

I mean, this is around $4000 new and the 80km range is enough for daily use, what's the problem? Electric bikes with similar range have been a thing for a very long time, there's loads of choice in the market already(in EU anyway, no idea about US)

https://allegro.pl/oferta/motorower-skuter-elektryczny-super...

[balfirevic]

The problem is that is basically a toy (speed-wise, power-wise and range-wise) compared to an even cheaper gasoline motorcycle.

[gambiting]

Sure, but those require a full A-class driving licence, which is both a significant time and financial investment. This you can ride with either a very simple theory-based test or even without any qualification at all.

[jacobush]

Wow, I didn't know about the Kawasaki Ninja 400. That's a really impressive bike at a fantastic price. That would have been like 2000 dollars in 1987. Completely unheard of. Motorcycles have come a long way.

[dharmab]

It has never been a better time to be a rider, you can get some seriously amazing bikes for the money.

Unfortunately it is a very bad time to try to make money in the motorcycle industry right now. Older riders are aging out and interested young people can't afford bikes due to student debt and other debt.

[Zenbit_UX]

> young people can't afford bikes due to student debt and other debt.

I find comments like these interesting because it shows a fundamentally different perspective on motorcycling.

It sounds like you view it as a hobby or pastime, and an expensive one at that, likely because you see it as something to purchase after already owning a car.

I see it as a highly efficient and cheap form of personal transportation, especially for urban areas. In my city (Montreal) motorcycles park for free and almost anywhere they wish, essentially lawlessly. I don't own a car and use a motorcycle to avoid public transportation yet not impact the environment nearly as much as a full size car. The economics of it are amazing too, I spend about $15-20 on gasoline a month while commuting daily, spend almost no time in traffic and nothing on parking. Maybe $600 a year on insurance and $300 on plates. The initial costs were higher due to getting gear but that still doesn't compare to car ownership.

[Gibbon1]

Friend of mine in the Bay Area commutes on a motorcycle. says depreciation and maintenance negate any savings. He does it because it saves him an hour a day commuting.

[Zenbit_UX]

$120/season for oil change and filter + new tires every 2 years (unsure of the costs here as I've yet to need this on my new bike). Surely this is comparable or less than the average ICE car?

[dharmab]

You forgot valve checks. Those are an expensive service required on bikes but not on cars.

And moto tires are expensive, much more so per mile than car tires.

[dharmab]

Outside of very large cities where filtering is legal, the maintenance costs eat up any money you save over an economy car. Tires are especially brutal- my commute makes me have to replace both tires every winter.

[Zenbit_UX]

My tires will have to be replaced in the spring but maintenance costs other than that are about $120 for oil change and filter once per season. What other costs are you getting?

[dharmab]

Oil for my car: $20, lasts 5000 miles

Oil filter for my car: $8, lasts 15000 miles

Oil and filter change for my least expensive bike: $22, lasts 1500 miles

Oil and filter change for my lowest maintenance bike: $67, lasts 6000 miles

Valve adjustment: $200-300 for a professional to remove the head and cams and adjust the valve shims. Interval varies, usually every 10000-15000 miles on a bike. Not required at all on a car due to hydraulic lifters that are fine for a car engine but can't move fast enough for a high-revving bike engine.

Final drive: Chain and sprocket need replacement every 12000-15000 miles, costs about $150 or so. Shafts need shaft oil every 10000 miles, dunno what the price is since I've never had anything other than a chain. Most cars last 100000+ miles without any transmission service.

Spark plugs last 100000+ miles on a car but usually are changed every 10000-20000 miles on a bike. Modern bikes often use multiple plugs per cylinder. $5 per plug.

The tires are the main killer for me. A set of tires on my car lasts about 6 years, while I have to replace tires every year on my main bike. That adds up very quickly.

Other costs:

Coolant every 4 years, brake fluid every 2 years, but that is similar on the car.

I have to admit that good coverage bike insurance is cheaper than good coverage car insurance as long as you stay away from sportbikes and hoon machines.

[peatmoss]

All that makes sense except the Montreal part... riding in icy conditions sounds like pure terror to me. And I say this as someone who used to commute by bicycle year around in Montana.