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by robsun
2414 days ago
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In my career I have estimated a lot of project. I tried different techniques and I find https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Program_evaluation_and_review_... is the most accurate one. If I was asked to give some hints, I would say: - in optimistic and pessimistic cases don't fear to use extreme values - don't estimate on your own, take reasonable amount of developers with variety of experiences - don't give exact value to client, give probabilities ("it is very likely that we will be deliver this in between X and Y man-hours/days) All estimates I made using PERT were quite accurate (<5% time difference between estimated and real execution) |
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From my experiences, I've found that 3x my initial "estimate / goal / ego trip timeline" gives the most realistic picture. Sometimes I can hit my best; most often things come up. It took a little while to accept, mostly because I wanted to do my best always and be able to promise and fulfill it. But Reality hit back, and I had to adjust.
It's hard to see the network effects of each micro-interaction in long range projecting, but once you really break down how long each thing could take, how that would affect each other related part, and who/what else is involved at each step/layer, it clears up the fog.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fog_of_war#Military