[mitchtbaum]

Yes. I was about to link this too.

From my experiences, I've found that 3x my initial "estimate / goal / ego trip timeline" gives the most realistic picture. Sometimes I can hit my best; most often things come up. It took a little while to accept, mostly because I wanted to do my best always and be able to promise and fulfill it. But Reality hit back, and I had to adjust.

It's hard to see the network effects of each micro-interaction in long range projecting, but once you really break down how long each thing could take, how that would affect each other related part, and who/what else is involved at each step/layer, it clears up the fog.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fog_of_war#Military