[airesQ]

Is it just me or the competition on the CPU market is about to get really interesting? My understanding is that if Intel loses the edge on fab-tech then the door is open for all kinds of new entrants. (I could be wrong though.)

Who knows, perhaps even Intel will use TSMC's process at some point.

[blihp]

The CPU market has been interesting for a couple of years. Intel effectively already lost the edge on fab-tech in terms of what they are able to produce. Forget about TSMC Xnm vs Intel Ynm... the numbers are meaningless. Look at the performance per watt of AMD's latest offerings vs Intel's. They are behind today.[1]

That said, in a lot of ways the really interesting stuff is likely to happen on the older nodes. There's really nothing enabling about the latest fab node... it's just bragging rights for the highest absolute performance and/or performance per watt for CPUs which most applications don't need and can't afford. ARM/RISC-V/whatever doesn't need 5nm to be feasible... in fact, those 'other' products often aren't viable on the latest nodes due to cost unless you're a market leader with huge volumes to amortize the cost over.

[1] Sure, they still offer the absolute top performance per thread... by a bit. But look at the price they're paying from a perf/watt standpoint to get there. I seem to recall AMD being ridiculed not too many years ago for doing this...

[axaxs]

What makes you think new entrants? Just curious. On the fab side definitely not... there's really only 3 fabs competing on the bleeding edge side of things, and it costs way too much to open another. On the 'chip designer' side maybe, but I'm not sure why Intel's performance affects whether or not someone jumps in. I basically see a convergence coming, with ARM stuff getting better performance, and x86 stuff using less power...so there will be an interesting crossroads of sorts to see which direction things go.

[airesQ]

The new entrants would be on the design side. If Intel no longer holds the keys to best fab-tech in the world then all bets are off.

(I'm assuming that Intel doesn't allow competitors to use their fabs; and that Intel does indeed have the best fab-tech at the moment; maybe I'm wrong.)

[mng2]

Even a fabless semiconductor company (e.g. nVidia, Apple, heck, AMD) needs to spend hundreds of millions to tape out a leading-edge IC. It's a capital-intensive business, and would present quite a risky bet for any upstart competitors. Also, patents.

https://semiengineering.com/big-trouble-at-3nm/

[foota]

It would be fascinating for another major fab to arise. It's not impossible to imagine how either, a large chip designer with piles of cash could decide they want to get into fab, or a niche fab could slowly move into it?

[analognoise]

Not going to happen unless there is some absolute paradigm shift in technology. Not many people throw around 20 billion dollars on upstarts.

The problem is that the paradigm shift technology we've read about multiple times has always been overcome by more investment in standard silicon processes.

Economically we're long past the point of contraction - there has been a ridiculous pace of mergers in the semiconductor industry to have the network effects to stay current. The effects are worse at the top, and we are down to three companies even in the race.

Basically, no, we'll never have another fab entrant who is a major player.

[anthony_doan]

> My understanding is that if Intel loses the edge on fab-tech then the door is open for all kinds of new entrants. (I could be wrong though.)

Doubt it. There are only two players in the x86 market.

I haven't seen anything compelling for personal computer and server space yet to take over AMD or Intel. I believe AMD is going to gain some market share with their new products.