It would be fascinating for another major fab to arise. It's not impossible to imagine how either, a large chip designer with piles of cash could decide they want to get into fab, or a niche fab could slowly move into it?
Not going to happen unless there is some absolute paradigm shift in technology. Not many people throw around 20 billion dollars on upstarts.
The problem is that the paradigm shift technology we've read about multiple times has always been overcome by more investment in standard silicon processes.
Economically we're long past the point of contraction - there has been a ridiculous pace of mergers in the semiconductor industry to have the network effects to stay current. The effects are worse at the top, and we are down to three companies even in the race.
Basically, no, we'll never have another fab entrant who is a major player.
The problem is that the paradigm shift technology we've read about multiple times has always been overcome by more investment in standard silicon processes.
Economically we're long past the point of contraction - there has been a ridiculous pace of mergers in the semiconductor industry to have the network effects to stay current. The effects are worse at the top, and we are down to three companies even in the race.
Basically, no, we'll never have another fab entrant who is a major player.