[arkadiyt]

All these indicators are guesses at best, but out of curiosity I checked the current Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers [1]:

Prior 12 months lowest unemployment rate: 3.6% (in April & May 2019).

Prior 3 months average (June/July/August 2019): 3.7%.

So according to this metric we are not in a recession.

[1]: https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea03.htm

[trufflebutter]

Typically a recession is defined by having at least 2 quarters of decreased GDP growth, so it is often a lagging indicator. By the time we definitively know we are in a recession...we've already been in it for 6 months. That is to say that I'm not sure how good of an indicator a rolling average of unemployment is, especially in a gig-economy sort of market. But I agree, using indicators to predict a recession is basically an educated guess, with little emphasis on the educated part.