[trufflebutter]

Typically a recession is defined by having at least 2 quarters of decreased GDP growth, so it is often a lagging indicator. By the time we definitively know we are in a recession...we've already been in it for 6 months. That is to say that I'm not sure how good of an indicator a rolling average of unemployment is, especially in a gig-economy sort of market. But I agree, using indicators to predict a recession is basically an educated guess, with little emphasis on the educated part.