[baybal2]

I'm still baffled why Beijing is still goes THAT easy on USA.

It is fully in its capacity to make Washington to capitulate.

If they were to go with embargoes and not tariffs, things would be dramatically different, especially if they can nuke holiday season sales.

Just a plain clothing embargo would send all and every American retailer scrambling. There will be not enough merchandise in all India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam combined. And it will be even worse if Chinese factories in those countries would also join the embargo.

For things like regular household goods will also be no real alternatives as even export oriented economies like Vietnam import god knows how much plasticware from China just because it is often cheaper than manufacturing locally.

Just thing of how many "dollar goods" you buy every month, and what would you do if there would simply be none.

I instantly remember my childhood in early nineties Russia. We were one of richest families in the city or likely the entire Russian Far East, with father's business and mom's salary making few hundred thousand bucks a years, but from time to time we had to subsist on millet for months in a row for a simple reason that there were physically no other food in the entire region.

[belltaco]

>If they were to go with embargoes and not tariffs,, things would be dramatically different, especially if they can nuke holiday season sales.

>Just a plain clothing embargo would send all and every American retailer scrambling. There will be not enough merchandise in all India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam combined. And it will be even worse if Chinese factories in those countries would also join the embargo.

>For things like regular household goods will also be no real alternatives as even export oriented economies like Vietnam import god knows how much plasticware from China just because it is often cheaper than manufacturing locally.

I am confused.

No countries that I know of apply tariffs and embargoes on exports of goods, except stuff that's national security sensitive like military tech. They do the opposite, i.e subsidize exports, which is at the core of this mess, i.e Trump thinking that China is subsidizing too much and devaluing their currency.

Are you advocating that China apply tariffs and embargoes on exports to the US? Isn't that what the US exactly wants?

Also embargoes mean that, in the future, after this is resolved, importers will be very vary of trust Chinese exports and will prefer other countries even if somewhat more expensive, just for stability.

[baybal2]

Very much yes. One thing is just having to buy goods at 25% higher price, another is not being able to buy even basic houseware and "dollar goods" at all.

When even rich people start feeling powerlessness at not being able to get basic material necessities, things do happen.

At some point, people stop looking at Beijing, and start looking at Trump

[belltaco]

Nah, it's tempting for China but they are smarter than that. Other countries would quickly ramp up, and will also think twice about relying on critical imports from China, as China would have shown their willingness to cut their nose to spite the face. It would unite Americans behind Trump as China would be viewed as a bad actor acting to hurt Americans. The response is not proportional and it would hurt local jobs while helping competition from other countries to ramp up.

[baybal2]

Do you understand that industrial output of all "China alternatives" combined would only equal that of one well industrialised province in China despite not so insignificant investments coming for more than a decade?

So US will be stuck, and will have to live with understanding that even a plain plastic bucket costs $20.

[asdf333]

the issue is it would also wreak serious havoc on china's economy

and while xi is president for life, he doesn't want to risk mass unrest in his own country.

[dole]

The Yuan to USD exchange rate is still close to an 11-year low so China's economy is already in flux.

[baybal2]

Trade with USA is just 2% of China's GDP.

Were it to take a short, controlled dip into recession to teach US a lesson, it would not be really noticed domestically.

And it will be a much better alternative than to let China to slowly bleed as manufacturers leave the country just to be able to sell to US in long term.

[fspeech]

Total Chinese export is still going up. You only need 35% local content to be labeled “made in country x”. This trade war will reduce headline bilateral deficit with the US which China knows to be at an unhealthy level. There’s additional cost compared to the past but US is sharing the burden.

[moneybadger]

It's not really that baffling - China makes vast sums of money trading with the US and nuking holiday sales would hurt them just as much as it would hurt the US, if not more so. And there's no undo button on such a move, if China crossed that line once then there's zero guarantee they won't do it again in the future. So while in the short term China might get what they want, but in the long term it would drastically decrease the appeal of manufacturing in China and international businesses would look elsewhere to invest.

[resters]

China has to avoid alienating the American people, who largely support China over Trump on the matter of tariffs.

So by playing it cool and letting Trump get in a few rounds of tit for tat, China is expecting not to have to take more drastic measures in order to win.

I expect that China's restraint will pay off, as the trade war has already sent the economy into the early stages of recession, and China still has a year to let Trump dig his own grave.

[mytailorisrich]

They know that there are elections in 2020. They might be playing for time until then.

But if Trump is re-elected...