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by belltaco 2498 days ago
>If they were to go with embargoes and not tariffs,, things would be dramatically different, especially if they can nuke holiday season sales.

>Just a plain clothing embargo would send all and every American retailer scrambling. There will be not enough merchandise in all India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam combined. And it will be even worse if Chinese factories in those countries would also join the embargo.

>For things like regular household goods will also be no real alternatives as even export oriented economies like Vietnam import god knows how much plasticware from China just because it is often cheaper than manufacturing locally.

I am confused.

No countries that I know of apply tariffs and embargoes on exports of goods, except stuff that's national security sensitive like military tech. They do the opposite, i.e subsidize exports, which is at the core of this mess, i.e Trump thinking that China is subsidizing too much and devaluing their currency.

Are you advocating that China apply tariffs and embargoes on exports to the US? Isn't that what the US exactly wants?

Also embargoes mean that, in the future, after this is resolved, importers will be very vary of trust Chinese exports and will prefer other countries even if somewhat more expensive, just for stability.

1 comments

Very much yes. One thing is just having to buy goods at 25% higher price, another is not being able to buy even basic houseware and "dollar goods" at all.

When even rich people start feeling powerlessness at not being able to get basic material necessities, things do happen.

At some point, people stop looking at Beijing, and start looking at Trump

Nah, it's tempting for China but they are smarter than that. Other countries would quickly ramp up, and will also think twice about relying on critical imports from China, as China would have shown their willingness to cut their nose to spite the face. It would unite Americans behind Trump as China would be viewed as a bad actor acting to hurt Americans. The response is not proportional and it would hurt local jobs while helping competition from other countries to ramp up.
Do you understand that industrial output of all "China alternatives" combined would only equal that of one well industrialised province in China despite not so insignificant investments coming for more than a decade?

So US will be stuck, and will have to live with understanding that even a plain plastic bucket costs $20.