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by glbrew
2499 days ago
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I'm not quite as pessimistic as you regarding HK and Ukraine. In the short run, yes, the powerful people (China, Putin) will win. In the long run, will Putin and his cronies continue to have the economic power to strong arm all of Ukraine? I highly doubt it. In the long run will the CPC continue to pull 100m's in poverty into wealth while protecting their failing water systems, soil systems, international good will? Again, I highly doubt it. I think the long term is in favor of HK and Ukraine, not against it. Edit: And regarding Occupy, it is often considered the most successful protest in modern Western history. Countless leaders and young people have seen it as a blueprint and guide to how to continue their struggle. I have seen dozens if not hundreds of videos on youtube that cite the enormous progress Occupy made on how to run a successful protest in the current era, and movements such as Extinction Rebellion are going to take those tactics to another level. |
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And if HK and China do eventually become liberal democracies, it'll be because of gradual change within the Chinese government.
I'm personally very optimistic about their long term prospects, I just think history has taught us that violent revolution or sudden change usually leads to negative consequences in the short to mid term. There's more than enough examples in our lifetime.
On the other hand, most of the economic gains, the reduction of poverty around the world, the economic development of Europe, Asia and Africa have all been done thanks to the rule of law, relative peace, investment, etc... Not due to revolution.