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by pdpi 2500 days ago
Correlation doesn't imply causation, but the lack of correlation does definitely imply a lack of causation as well.

So while it's not correct to say Cicconetti's approach lowers recidivism, or that jail time increases it, it's definitely correct to say that a punitive, jail-heavy approach to justice is not at all effective at rehabilitation.
1 comments
Recursing 2500 days ago
> a lack of correlation does definitely imply a lack of causation as well.

That's not true as well, see Friedman's Thermostat for the extreme case

Generally rehabilitation percentages for "alternative punishments" can be misleading because they tend to be applied to situations where they're more likely to succeed

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pdpi 2500 days ago
Ok, fair. My point is only valid insofar as the two variables are the only variables in the system. :)

Thanks for bringing up Friedman's Thermostat, I wasn't aware of that thought experiment, and it's a really great example.

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