[Recursing]

> a lack of correlation does definitely imply a lack of causation as well.

That's not true as well, see Friedman's Thermostat for the extreme case

Generally rehabilitation percentages for "alternative punishments" can be misleading because they tend to be applied to situations where they're more likely to succeed

[pdpi]

Ok, fair. My point is only valid insofar as the two variables are the only variables in the system. :)

Thanks for bringing up Friedman's Thermostat, I wasn't aware of that thought experiment, and it's a really great example.