[maxxxxx]

"War or give us what we want,"

I always wonder what he really wants from them (Total surrender is probably not going to happen and he rejects the nuclear treaty so what's the endgame?). I also don't understand how nice he is to North Korea in comparison to Iran. North Korea's government is probably the most brutal government on the planet right now and makes Iran almost look nice.

[wahern]

> I also don't understand how nice he is to North Korea in comparison to Iran. North Korea's government is probably the most brutal government on the planet right now and makes Iran almost look nice.

Because North Korea says nice things about him in public. He literally made it clear that all he wants with Iran is that he make a deal. He wants the photo ops, he wants the opportunity to look good. A not insignificant number of Trump's base already believe he "solved" the North Korea issue, and that's what he wants with Iran.

Personally I seriously doubt that Trump will initiate a full-on war with Iran. I said it in 2016 after the election and I'll say it now: Trump has a preternatural instinct for survival and spinning narratives, and wars are invariably lose-lose for everybody involved. He's not stupid enough to believe Iran could possibly turn out any better than Iraq. He may drop a few bombs to punish the IRGC for making him look bad, but then he'll find an opportune time to claim victory and move on or otherwise shift attention. Iran's regime is safe just like North Korea's is safe.

[maxxxxx]

I agree. I am a little worried that if something like 9/11 happened again he may do something impulsive that may spiral out of control.

[wahern]

That's what I mean by preternatural instinct. Yes, he's impulsive and a textbook narcissistic archetype. But that's not all he is. He's Donald Trump for a reason--someone who is successful almost despite himself. For decades everybody around him loses but he always worms his way out before the house of cards falls. However, avoiding the consequences is nearly impossible to do if he attempts to invade Iran, even if he had objectively good reason to.

At the very worst we may end up fighting a proxy war through Israel and Saudi Arabia and wrecking even more havoc in the ME, but there won't be another Iraq.

In that sense he's reliable and predictable. Russia knows this. China knows this. Iran, Saudia Arabia, and Israel, however... they may be cocky enough to try to manipulate Trump into doing things he simply won't do and is perhaps incapable of doing, and things will go sideways for them. For the U.S. our cost will be in treasure and reputation, which will be par for the course.